Putin may turn to chemical weapons if war hits a dead end, The Times

According to Ukrainian military data, Russian occupying forces have used dangerous chemical substances more than 9,000 times since the start of the war — including 6,540 incidents last year alone.

This has largely involved the use of grenades filled with riot-control agents such as CS and CN gas.

Ukrainian and European officials say Russian units have also at times used chloropicrin, a choking agent first deployed during World War I.

Western officials, the report notes, fear that the chemicals documented by Ukraine may not reflect the full scope of Russia’s chemical weapons arsenal.

"The concern, voiced quietly in allied capitals, is that a prolonged or stalemated war in Ukraine could tempt the Kremlin to resort to more dangerous battlefield weapons. President Putin has repeatedly rattled the nuclear sabre while remaining conspicuously silent about chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction," The Times reported.

Following the poisoning of Alexei Navalny in 2020, investigative group Bellingcat concluded that Russia's program to develop the nerve agent Novichok continued "long beyond the officially announced closure date."

According to their investigation, scientists involved in the development of the nerve agent were transferred to nominally civilian institutions, allowing chemical weapons work to continue under the cover of medical and industrial research.

Employees of two such organizations — the State Institute for Experimental Military Medicine and the Scientific Centre Signal — were identified as key figures in the refinement and weaponization of Novichok well into the 2010s.

"It is fair to assume that Russia’s chemical weapons programme is still extant. If Novichok were used on a wider scale, it could have a massive impact," said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British army officer.

Former Commander of the UK Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons, argues that a shift to more lethal chemical weapons would be a disadvantageous move for Moscow, offering little military benefit while carrying high costs.

"You attract attention for a war crime, you run the risk of reciprocation, and there’s a double-edged sword — you may introduce your own forces to risk," he said, noting that factors such as wind direction could turn the weapon against those deploying it.

However, Barrons added that the temptation to use such weapons could arise "if you’re in a situation where the stakes are extraordinarily high, a situation where national survival is at stake."

Russia's use of chemical weapons at the front

In July last year, it was reported that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) had documented more than 10,000 cases of chemical weapons use by Russian forces against Ukraine's Defense Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Law enforcement agencies determined that Russian units systematically used aerosol grenades containing toxic CS and CN agents, as well as chloropicrin ampoules, to force Ukrainian troops out of their positions and into direct fire.

The highest number of such incidents was recorded in the eastern sector of the front, as well as during strikes on the Nikopol district of Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region.