Putin expects victory in Donbas, but battlefield data tells different story - ISW
Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains confident of a quick victory in Donbas. Analysts say the explanation may lie in the actions of his own military command, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts drew attention to a Financial Times article published on May 28.
According to the publication, sources who communicate with Putin claim that the Russian president is convinced his army can capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the fall of 2026. After that, he plans to increase his territorial demands during negotiations.
However, ISW's actual figures sharply contrast with these expectations.
Since the beginning of 2026, Russian troops have been advancing at a rate of only 2.63 square kilometers per day in the Donetsk region. At such a pace, analysts emphasize, it is unclear when — or even whether — Russia can capture the rest of the region.
A comparison with last year is telling. During the same period — from the beginning of the year to May 26 — Russia captured 1,619 square kilometers in 2025. In 2026, that figure fell to 104 square kilometers.
Moreover, even if the territory that Russian troops entered but failed to hold is included — a total of 628 square kilometers — the result remains several times lower than last year's.
ISW believes that the military command is deliberately presenting Putin with a distorted picture of the advance to conceal the true scale of the slowdown in the offensive.
According to analysts, this is what leads him to make increasingly unrealistic demands and likely move further away from any diplomatic settlement.
Map of combat operations in Ukraine (photo: Institute for the Study of War, ISW)
Earlier, Western media reported that Putin is allegedly convinced of victory on the battlefield and is prepared to continue fighting for up to two more years to gain full control of the Donetsk region.
