Putin could attack Estonia within 5–7 years, says Rutte

During the conversation, the host reminded Rutte of a New Yorker article that described military exercises held in Estonia to test the country’s readiness for a potential Russian invasion.

The article noted that Estonia lacks air and naval forces. Moreover, during the exercises, the team playing the invading army had a "capabilities overmatch", possessing more heavy armor and long-range weapons. Against this backdrop, Rutte was asked whether these drills served as a warning sign.

"No. What The New Yorker described there is right, but it’s not a wake-up call, because we have all the plans in place that if Estonia is attacked, and the Russians know this, our reaction will be devastating," the NATO chief said.

He added that he couldn’t share the details, as he’s confident that Putin watches these programs. However, he emphasized that "we have to make sure" not only that these plans are in place, but also that the necessary personnel and equipment are available to execute them. That’s why, he said, "we need to spend more [on defense]."

Rutte explained that Putin will not strike Estonia now, as NATO’s full power, including support from the United States, would be deployed in its defense. Still, he admitted that an attempt at invasion is possible in the future.

"But it’s not that the Estonians are left to themselves. It would be the full force of NATO, including the full backup of the United States, which would come to the rescue. Putin knows this. This is why he will not attack Estonia today. But he might in five or seven years if we do not make all these extra investments," the NATO Secretary General said.

Rutte was also asked whether he was confident that the US would protect Estonia, given that former President Donald Trump had never given a clear commitment to defend Europe. Rutte responded unequivocally.

"One hundred percent. I have no doubt at all, and it was very clear in the closing press conference in The Hague. But also everything I’ve discussed over the last six months with the new US administration, absolutely no shiver of a doubt that the US is completely committed to NATO, is completely committed to Article 5," Rutte said.

He concluded by noting one serious source of irritation: "the fact that the Europeans have not paid their fair share."

Russia’s possible attack on NATO

In the same interview, Rutte also suggested that China might push Russia to attack NATO countries to distract the alliance from the Asia-Pacific region.

He believes that if Beijing plans to attack Taiwan, it is highly likely to use Russia to launch an assault on Europe.

A few weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also stated that Russian forces could attack a NATO member state within the next five years to test the alliance’s strength.

According to The Washington Post, US President Donald Trump promised NATO countries that Putin would not attack any member states during his presidency.