Putin confident Russia to seize four Ukrainian regions by year's end - Bloomberg

According to a person familiar with the Russian leader's position, Putin is confident that his troops will be able to break through Ukraine's defenses by the end of the year and take full control of the four regions he declared part of Russia (referring to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions).

This means that Putin is unlikely to make any significant concessions to Trump during today's conversation. For their part, European leaders are concerned that the US President may try to impose a settlement no matter what.

Bloomberg notes that Trump insists on ending the war as soon as possible and has supported a direct conversation with Putin to reach a deal. The Head of the Kremlin, for his part, has given no indication that he is ready to end the war. This has fueled concern in Kyiv and other European capitals that Ukraine could be forced to cede even more territory. However, at this point, it is not entirely clear whether these sentiments are real or merely the opinion of the editorial team.

Two other people close to the Kremlin claim that, despite all the talk about ending hostilities, Putin is ready for a protracted war if necessary to achieve his goals. Furthermore, he is sanguine about the prospect of further US sanctions.

According to a senior European official, during a phone call on Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer tried to make it clear to Trump that Putin is playing him. They hope Trump realizes that he risks looking like a loser if he forces Ukraine into a bad deal, the official added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also on Friday's call. The Head of the Ukrainian state and his European allies believed that Trump had committed them to imposing new sanctions on the Kremlin if Putin refused to observe the ceasefire beginning May 12, which never happened.

Yesterday, Sunday, on the eve of today's call with Putin, Trump held a repeated call with Merz, Starmer, Macron, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. According to the British Prime Minister's press secretary, the leaders discussed the need for an unconditional ceasefire and for Putin to take negotiations seriously.

Bloomberg also writes that the Kremlin Head's confidence in Russia's prospects on the battlefield contradicts Western assessments. According to European officials, after suffering massive losses over more than three years of war, Russia lacks the capabilities to achieve Putin's objectives.

According to a person close to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, many Russian military personnel fighting against Ukraine share this skepticism. In particular, the source mentioned that Ukrainian drones have made large-scale offensives costly and ineffective for Russia.

The risk for Putin is that he may overestimate his capabilities and prompt Trump to carry out his threat to impose additional sanctions in order to end what the US President has called a "bloodbath" in Ukraine.

According to European authorities familiar with the situation, American officials have privately indicated to their European counterparts that Trump is considering approving a sanctions bill prepared by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham if Russia does not make concessions. He may also tell Putin that he cannot prevent it.