Putin betting on war of attrition, ISW on derailing his strategy
Photo: Vladimir Putin, Russian president (Getty Images)
The Kremlin is counting on Ukraine to grow weary of the war before Russia does, but Western countries have the power to shift the course of events, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to ISW experts, while increasing economic pressure on Russia is a politically positive move, it is insufficient on its own to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate or reconsider his definition of victory.
Analysts consider continued Western military support for Ukraine to be the key factor in a pressure strategy that could ultimately compel the Kremlin to revise its war objectives.
ISW notes that Putin’s theory of victory hinges on the belief that Russian forces can sustain slow but steady battlefield gains longer than Ukraine can maintain its defenses, and longer than the West will be willing to provide support. This assumption, experts say, likely explains Putin’s ongoing reluctance to engage in meaningful negotiations with the US or Ukraine.
The report argues that peace in Ukraine, on terms acceptable to the United States, would require either sustained high Russian losses or a significant Russian defeat on the battlefield.
"The United States must continue equipping Ukrainian soldiers as Russia's battlefield losses remain the key driver of Russia's current materiel, manpower, and economic problems," the ISW states.
Experts emphasize that only the United States can provide weapons in the volume and speed necessary to significantly boost Ukraine’s defensive capacity, slow Russia’s advance, and inflict even greater losses on its military.
"Higher and even more unsustainable Russian casualty rates on the battlefield, particularly when they are disproportionate to the territorial gains they generate, would risk Putin's efforts to balance 'butter and guns' and maintain domestic support," ISW concludes.
Threats and situation on ground
The battlefield situation remains tense. Over the past 24 hours, more than 150 assaults were recorded, with Russian forces intensifying their offensive in the Pokrovsk direction.
Meanwhile, Russian troops are attempting to expand their foothold in the Sumy region and are advancing deeper into the area.
Official Kyiv is still awaiting a response from Washington regarding the purchase of US-made air defense systems.
European countries have reportedly urged the US to step in and purchase weapons for Ukraine’s needs if President Donald Trump refuses to provide direct support.
