Putin aims to keep military bases in Syria after Assad's downfall - British intelligence

According to the report, Russian officials almost certainly believe that the collapse of the Assad regime, their former Syrian ally, damages both their regional strategic interests and their image as a security guarantor.

“The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukraine conflict to be their primarly concern. Russia's prioritization of the Ukrainian conflict likely degraded Russia's ability and capacity to keep the Assad's regime in power,” the report said.

According to British intelligence, Russia's main goal in Syria is to maintain control of its military bases - the largest overseas naval base in Tartus and the air base in Hmeymim - to ensure Russia's strategic access to the Middle East and the Mediterranean, supporting its goals in Africa and allowing it to demonstrate military power. The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the security risk to these assets.

“In the short term, Russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases,” the British Ministry of Defense said.

Bashar al-Assad's regime fell within ten days. The dictator himself was forced to flee to Russia, where he was granted asylum by Putin.

Anonymous Bloomberg sources in Moscow, Europe, and the Middle East said that Russia is negotiating with the new Syrian leadership to keep two military bases in the country.

According to a source in Moscow, the Russian military believes it has an informal agreement with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that it can keep the military bases in Syria.