Potential stages of ongoing war in Ukraine

As stated in the report, there are currently three geopolitical hotspots globally: the war in Ukraine, tensions around Taiwan, and the conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Escalation in any of these areas could have a global impact.

"Over the next two years, the war in Ukraine could sporadically alternate between intensifying and refreezing. Despite sanctions, Russia has continued to benefit from energy profits and commodity exports – and this could increase further if the conflict in the Middle East widens," the report states.

Specifically, the course of the war in Ukraine may be influenced by the following factors:

• Reduced support from the US and Europe, complicating Ukraine's efforts to maintain unity with the West;
• Russia continuing to benefit from energy resources and export goods despite sanctions;
• Conventional weapons being used in case of escalation, with the possibility of the war spreading to other countries;
• The war potentially evolving into a protracted conflict lasting years or even decades.

"While post-conflict scenarios for both Ukraine and Russia are difficult to predict, the war could 'refreeze' into a prolonged, sporadic conflict that could last years or even decades," the report states.

Results of the war in 2023

In the summer of 2023, Ukrainian military forces conducted a counteroffensive focused on the southeastern part of the country.

Despite successfully liberating about 10 settlements, the objectives of the counteroffensive were not fully achieved.

For more detailed information on the results of military actions in 2023 and forecasts for 2024, refer to the material from RBC-Ukraine.