Operation Vivaldi could derail Russia's plan to seize Sloviansk, ISW says
Photo: The Russian offensive on Sloviansk may face difficulties (Getty Images)
Ukraine's Vivaldi operation near Lyman could complicate Russia's offensive toward Sloviansk. Even Russian military bloggers are now openly talking about it, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Citing Russian bloggers, ISW writes that there are concerns in Russia that Vivaldi in the Lyman direction will interfere with the assault on Sloviansk from the east.
ISW explains that the operation not only disrupted Russian plans to widely encircle the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillia directions, but could also complicate the offensive toward the northern cities of this belt.
A Kremlin-linked blogger assessed on September 30 that the situation for Russian forces is deteriorating not only near Lyman, but also in the Sloviansk direction. According to him, Ukrainian forces have established positions near Dibrova and Ozerne. They are now trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and attack Russian positions near Piskunivka and Kryva Luka from the north.
Photo: ISW reported that Vivaldi could disrupt the Kremlin's plans (screenshot from understandingwar.org)
Another problem for Russia is the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal. The blogger said that the situation there is also deteriorating: Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Yurkivka, Malynivka and Tykhonivka. It is problematic for the Russians to strengthen their positions there because of difficulties crossing the canal.
Russian sources also report Ukrainian counterattacks near Rai-Oleksandrivka. According to them, Ukrainian forces are preventing the Russians from reaching Mykolaivka.
Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets believes the same. He reported on this on September 28 and 29.
"The elimination of the Russian salient in the Lyman area during Operation Vivaldi will likely hamper Russian offensive efforts towards Sloviansk from the east," the ISW report says.
New position in the Sloviansk direction
On October 1, a Ukrainian serviceman said that Ukrainian forces are completing the formation of a position in the Sloviansk direction. It could become the basis for a future major operation.
ISW emphasizes that it is unknown exactly where this position is being established. It is also unclear whether it is connected to the concerns expressed by Russian bloggers.
As part of Operation Vivaldi, the Third Army Corps turned Soviet BTR-60 armored personnel carriers into kamikaze drones. They were used to destroy the strongest Russian fortifications.
Meanwhile, the Defense Forces have advanced north of Korchakivka near Sumy.
Russian sources claim that Russian forces have made gains in the northern Sumy region, but there is no evidence of this.
