Oil prices surge again after massive weekly drop
Photo: Oil prices are rising again (Getty Images)
Today, May 22, global oil prices rose but remain on track for a weekly decline, all due to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
Today's prices
Brent Crude oil futures rose by $1.66, or 1.6%, to $104.24 per barrel as of 04:05 GMT.
Meanwhile, futures for US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $1.11, or 1.2%, to $97.46 per barrel.
Despite this, Brent fell 4.6% for the week, and WTI fell 7.6%. Prices fluctuated sharply due to shifting expectations regarding a possible peaceful resolution.
Why everything depends on Iran
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the gap in negotiations with the US has narrowed.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also noted some positive signs in the talks, though the parties have yet to reach an agreement on Tehran’s uranium reserves and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
What analysts say
"Oil prices would only trend lower when oil market fundamentals materially improve, which looks destined to stretch into 2027," says David Oxley, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics.
Commodities analyst Satoru Yoshida forecasts that next week, the price of WTI will remain within the range of $90–110 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions BMI has raised its average Brent price forecast for 2026 from $81.50 to $90 per barrel.
This is attributed to supply shortages, the need to repair damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and a prolonged post-conflict normalization period.
OPEC+ may increase production
The seven leading OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to agree on a modest increase in production in July at their meeting on June 7. However, supplies from several countries remain disrupted due to the war with Iran.
Oil price fluctuations
On May 11, global oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to the American peace initiative unacceptable.
An attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates put additional pressure on the market, after which prices continued to rise.
However, by May 20, prices had partially retreated and fell by about 1% following Trump’s statement about a quick end to the war in Iran
