Novocherkassk transforms into 'submarine': Ukraine's Russian Fleet depleting strategy, and count of ships resting at bottom

All the aforementioned vessels are large landing ships of Project 775 (NATO codification: Ropucha). They were built in Poland at the Stocznia Polnocna shipyard in Gdansk for the Soviet Navy and are the backbone of the Russian landing fleet.

They are designed for landing marine forces on unprepared shores and transporting troops and cargo by sea. They are capable of transporting various types of armored vehicles, including tanks.

Standard specifications for project 755 LSTs are as follows:

• Displacement - over 400 tons
• Length - 112.5 meters
• Width - 15 meters
• Crew - 87 persons
• Troops - up to 300 persons
• Cargo capacity - up to 460 tons

The ships are armed with launchers for the MS-73 RCM A-215 Grad-M, capable of firing at intervals of 0.5 seconds at a range of 21 km for shelling coastal fortifications and eliminating live forces. They also feature paired 57mm artillery installations AK-725 with remote targeting. To enhance firepower and air defense capabilities, the 775/III project ships replaced two AK-725 installations with an artillery complex consisting of one AK-176 and two AK-630M installations.

"If at the beginning of the war in the Black Sea, there were 13 large landing ships, now minus Saratov, Olenegorsky Gornyak, Minsk, and Novocherkassk, as well as the damaged Caezar Kunikov. Count them. Russian logistics through strikes on the Crimean Bridge is already complicated. And now they can't transport ammunition in the former volumes using ships," explains an expert.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least 23 Russian ships have been destroyed since the start of the full-scale invasion.

According to information from open sources, it all started with the damage to the small missile ship Velikiy Ustyug. Then there was the patrol boat Oleg Shipitsin, three LSDs in Berdyansk, the patrol frigate Admiral Essen, missile cruiser Moskva, patrol corvettes, landing boats, frigate Admiral Makarov, reconnaissance ships, submarine Rostov-on-Don, and so on.

UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps believes that the destruction of the LSD Novocherkassk demonstrates that those who talk about the deadlock of the war in Ukraine are mistaken.

"They haven't noticed that over the past 4 months 20% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed. Russia's dominance in the Black Sea is now challenged and the new UK & Norway led Maritime Capability Coalition is helping to ensure Ukraine will win at sea," he emphasized.

How Ukraine herded the enemy fleet to Novorossiysk

Before today's events, Ukraine had struck three Russian ships in November - the small missile corvette Askold (attacked with a SCALP missile) and two landing boats. However, ships heading to Ukrainian ports are still in danger, and the threat of missile attacks from the Black Sea remains. Although the danger is significantly less than a year ago.

"We were able to intercept Russia’s initiative in the Black Sea and created such security conditions that force the aggressor to flee from the eastern part of the water area and try to hide warships...As one of the main results of our actions, Russia is unable to use the Black Sea as a springboard to destabilize other regions of the world," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the fall at the summit of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation.

At the final press conference on December 19, he stressed that the Russian fleet had lost total dominance in the Black Sea and was unable to dictate to Ukraine what to do and what to export. According to him, by striking the fleet, Ukraine forces it to leave its territorial waters.

The monitoring group Crimean Wind, citing satellite images published by OSINT investigator MT Anderson, documents the transfer of almost all significant ships from the coastal Crimean waters to Novorossiysk.

Photo: satellite images of the port in Novorossiysk (t.me/VentdeCrimee)

Specifically, there are:

• 2 out of 2 Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates
• 3 out of 3 Buyan-M-class small missile ships
• 4 out of 4 Varshavyanka-class submarines
• 1 out of 3 Karakurt-class small missile corvettes
• 3 Vasily Bykov-class patrol ships
• 3 Project 775 landing ships
• 1 Ivan Gren-class landing ship
• 3 Akvamarin-class minesweepers

Furthermore, the ships that remain in Crimea are increasingly less seen out at sea.

"Currently, there are no ships in the Black and Azov Seas. At least as of yesterday evening. Maybe someone went out at night, I don't have that data now," says Volodymyr Zablotskyi to RBC-Ukraine.

Apart from strikes on ships, in September, Ukrainian forces conducted Operation Crab Trap. As part of it, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol was attacked by Storm Shadow missiles during a leadership meeting. As a result, the building was partially destroyed. However, it's unlikely that the fleet command has been moved elsewhere.

"It seems to me they're still in Sevastopol. The control system and equipment were damaged; the building wasn't completely destroyed, a wing remains intact. Besides, there's still plenty of space for admirals in Sevastopol," adds the expert.

Ukraine vs the Russian fleet forecast for 2024

The ability of Ukraine to continue hitting Russian ships depends on the availability of necessary armaments. According to Volodymyr Zablotskyi, relying solely on Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles (export versions hit targets up to 300 km away) won't be sufficient.

"These missiles aren't new; they were given to us not to win but because something had to be provided. They can only target static objects because the 'head' doesn't detect ships," explains the expert.

One of the options is the enhanced anti-ship cruise missile Neptune. When it enters service, there will be the ability to destroy moving targets.

"We're currently using what's available, and as we see, successfully, thank God," he emphasizes.

Regarding the fleet of surface drones, their capabilities shouldn't be exaggerated. They're primarily weapons, not a fleet, and for surface drones to hit something, it's necessary to precisely know where the target is and how much time it'll take for them to reach it from hypothetical locations like Ochakov or Odesa; otherwise, the target won't be there anymore.

"By the way, when we hit the Crimean Bridge in July, five new drones were supposed to attack it. But when they were on their way, reconnaissance noticed the frigate Admiral Essen in the sea, and the command decided to attack the frigate. Three drones chased it, but it managed to escape at a higher speed. There was no more fuel left to attack the bridge, so they self-destructed in the area of Yalta. Probably, we'll sink the frigate next time," Zablotskyi recounts.

Currently, Russians have no other option but to transport ammunition on landing ships through the Kerch Strait. Naturally, they'll try to repair the bridge, transport to the occupied Mariupol, where a new naval command has been established, as well as to Kerch and Feodosia. These, one could say, are the three main directions for 2024.

"They'll keep transporting, and we'll keep hindering that. What comes next, we'll see. For instance, we'll have F-16 aircraft, most likely, with their long-range missiles. Capable of hitting moving targets. And that's an entirely different philosophy of war, new tactics, which, I hope, will bring new successes," concludes the expert.