Moscow prepares to close border in fall in case of new mobilization - UK intelligence
Moscow will close the border for mobilized (Getty Images)
The Russian government is developing a system to prevent potential conscripts and mobilized individuals from leaving the country, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.
According to the briefing, on July 11, the independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported that the Russian government is implementing an "information exchange system" between the Ministry of Defence and the Federal Security Service (FSB) to relay detailed information about potential conscripts to the FSB's border service to prevent their escape from the country. The system is expected to be fully operational by autumn 2024.
British intelligence reports that Russia conducts two conscription cycles annually, calling up more than 250,000 individuals each year for one year of mandatory military service.
"Hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country after the announcement of a partial mobilisation in 2022 and these were disproportionately concentrated among the young and highly educated, causing knock on effects to the labour market. The implementation of this system is likely intended to prevent a similar exodus on a smaller scale repeat of this during the annual draft cycle, and in the event of a further wave of mobilisation," the UK Ministry of Defence says.
According to British intelligence, Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers each month, which allows it to cover losses and continue the war against Ukraine without resorting to unpopular mobilization.
The Levada Center reports that the percentage of those expecting a second wave of mobilization decreased last year. However, 48% of Russian residents believe it could be announced within the next three months.
