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Mobilization of hundreds of thousands of people negatively affects Russia's economy - UK intelligence

Mobilization of hundreds of thousands of people negatively affects Russia's economy - UK intelligence Mobilization in Russia affects the country's economy (Getty Images)
Author: Maria Kholina

Mobilization of hundreds of thousands of people for war against Ukraine is having a negative impact on the Russian economy. It is unlikely that there will be another mobilization before the 2024 presidential elections, according to the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom on Twitter.

The Russian military intends to recruit 420,000 contract personnel by the end of 2023. On 3 September 2023, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dimitry Medvedev stated that so far 280,000 personnel had been recruited. These numbers cannot be independently verified.

According to British intelligence, Russia's conscription continues to have negative effects on its industry workforce. The Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy found that Russia's industry shortage of workers reached a new high of 42% for July 2023, 7% higher from April 2023.

In contrast to conscription efforts elsewhere, in the IT sector Russia has taken steps to preserve the workforce. This likely highlights the particularly acute shortages in the sector after about 100,000 IT workers left Russia in 2022.

Specifically, on September 4, 2023, President Putin signed a decree to increase the exemption age of military recruitment for IT professionals from 27 to 30. This shows that mobilisation and conscription within Russia has worsened non-defence workforce shortages.

"In the run-up to the Russian presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, Russian authorities will likely seek to avoid further unpopular mobilisations," says the Ministry of Defense of Britain.

Mobilization in Russia

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the new wave of mobilization, Russia intends to call up between 400,000 and 700,000 men. This mobilization will also affect temporarily occupied territories in Ukraine.

However, the planned mobilization numbers for the populations of Moscow and St. Petersburg remain minimal.

Previously, Ukrainian intelligence had reported that a new wave of mobilization might be declared in Russia to replenish the occupying forces in Ukraine. This is likely to happen in September.