Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely due to Putin's personal fears - ISW
Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the short to medium term, as President Putin fears it poses a direct threat to the stability of his regime, according to a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts have noted reports regarding the potential announcement of another wave of mobilization by Russia both before the inauguration of President Vladimir Putin and after the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region in August 2024. However, the so-called Kremlin chief has yet to authorize such mobilization.
Recently, the Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that sources close to the Russian government claimed the Kremlin considered the idea of mobilization immediately following the Kursk operation. Yet, the Russian Cabinet and Kremlin-associated businessmen opposed these considerations.
Furthermore, throughout the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region, Putin has consistently signaled his commitment to recruiting volunteers, boasting about the number of recruits interested in fighting in Ukraine. In response to the actions of Ukrainian forces, the Russian President personally met with Russian volunteers.
The Institute notes that Putin did not seize the opportunity presented by Ukrainian troops' actions in the Kursk region to prepare Russian society for mobilization in the short to medium term. Instead, he chose to form new irregular units and expand efforts to recruit Russian volunteers.
Analysts emphasized that the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense significantly shocked Russian society when they announced partial mobilization in late September 2022. Given this context, Putin is now likely seeking to avoid a negative public reaction to a new wave of mobilization.
Mobilization in Russia
Recently, the Institute for the Study of War indicated in its report that Putin is unlikely to announce a new wave of mobilization in Russia, though he has not completely ruled out the possibility.
Currently, the Russian President will likely continue to instruct the Russian Ministry of Defense to sustain ongoing mobilization efforts until those efforts begin to fall significantly short of the operational needs on the battlefield in Ukraine.
