Military and political goals: Expert analyzes Ukrainian offensive in Kursk region
Illustrative photo: Expert explained purpose of AFU's offensive in the Kursk region (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The offensive of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region has two objectives: military and political. At the same time, it is important to remain realistic, as the strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) in this direction is limited, military expert and former Security Service of Ukraine employee Ivan Stupak stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Stupak noted that apart from statements by the Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, there is almost no information about the Defense Forces' offensive. As a result, assessments rely on the complaints from the Russian side about the intense activity of Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) or dozens of armored vehicles reportedly advancing toward the village of Velike Soldatskoye.
The expert emphasized the importance of being realistic in expectations, given that Ukraine's forces in the Kursk region are limited.
"The Russians speak of several dozen pieces of our equipment. That's basically it. To suggest that we will now reach Kursk or the Kursk nuclear power plant, which we don’t need even as a gift, is out of the question," he explained.
Objectives of the offensive in the Kursk region
According to Stupak, the offensive likely has two components: military (30%) and political (70%).
The military component aims to force the enemy to partially withdraw forces from Pokrovsk and Kurakhove and move them to Kursk, creating another major point of tension.
The political component, in turn, is intended to demonstrate the weakness of the Russian authorities and possibly create tension within Russian society. This could result in some internal displacement of people fleeing to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Arkhangelsk, or Barnaul.
"And perhaps, though this is a broader strategy, the idea is to use the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia. It sounds reasonable, but technically and practically, I cannot imagine how this could be achieved," he added.
Situation in the Kursk region
The AFU began their offensive in the Kursk region at the start of August 2024. By the end of the summer, Ukrainian forces controlled 100 settlements in the region. However, as reported by Western media, by November, Ukraine had lost more than 40% of the territory it initially controlled during the operation.
Yesterday, January 5, it was reported that the Defense Forces attacked Russian positions in the Kursk region across several fronts.
