Marine Le Pen leads France's 2027 presidential race, new poll shows
Marine Le Pen (photo: Getty Images)
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, has a strong chance of winning both rounds of France's 2027 presidential election, according to a Toluna Harris Interactive poll conducted for RTL.
According to the study, in the first round, Le Pen could receive 35% of the vote. This result is projected if Renaissance party leader Gabriel Attal, who currently has 8% support, and the head of the center-right Horizons party, Édouard Philippe, who has 14%, both run.
Pollsters place the head of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, second in the first round with 16%.
If Gabriel Attal withdraws his candidacy in favor of Édouard Philippe, the Horizons leader could overtake Mélenchon with 20%. However, he would still trail Le Pen, who would receive 34% in that scenario.
Forecasts for the second round
In the decisive second round, Marine Le Pen also maintains her lead. She is ahead of Édouard Philippe by 51% to 49%.
Analysts note that the gap between the main candidates is narrowing. In the previous similar poll, the balance of support was 52% to 48% in favor of Le Pen.
Survey data
The sociological survey was conducted online on July 7-8. A total of 1,837 people officially registered on France's electoral rolls took part.
What preceded this
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction in the case involving the embezzlement of European Parliament funds. The case concerns 2.8 million euros that were supposed to be used to pay assistants to Members of the European Parliament.
The court confirmed a fine of 100,000 euros, as well as a sentence of three years in prison. Of that term, two years are suspended, while Le Pen must serve one year under electronic monitoring with a bracelet.
At the same time, the court reduced the ban on holding public office to two years. Since this period began on March 31, 2025, the politician will be able to run in the next presidential election.
Despite this, her participation in the election campaign remains uncertain for now. Le Pen previously said she would not campaign if she were forced to wear an electronic bracelet.
Marine Le Pen has run for president of France three times. In 2017 and 2022, she reached the second round of the election, but lost to Emmanuel Macron both times.
In addition, Le Pen's party has repeatedly been linked to Russia. The reasons cited included a loan received from a Russian bank, as well as contacts between representatives of the political force and Russia and occupied Crimea.
