ISW shares details about Russia's further offensive plans in Donetsk region
Russian forces advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk region (x.com/GeneralStaffUA)
Russian forces have taken positions and pushed Ukrainian Armed Forces westward from the city of Kurakhove. The Russian army also plans to advance towards the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions from the captured city of Velyka Novosilka, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It is reported that Russian forces have captured the village of Ulakly, west of the city of Kurakhove, and closed the pocket for Ukrainian Armed Forces. One of the Russian military bloggers also claimed that Russian troops have advanced in the central part of Kostyantynopil from the south.
Russian forces continued their advance west of Kurakhove in the areas of Andriivka, Ulakly, and Kostyantynopil on February 20 and 21, attempting to leverage the capture of Kurakhove and the village of Dachne to straighten the front line to the west of these settlements.
The ISW highlights that the main goal of Russian forces in the Kurakhove direction was to straighten the front line and create more defensible positions to the west of the city. Analysts at the Institute are convinced that Russian forces will not redeploy from the Kurakhove direction until they achieve their objectives in the area.
Situation in the Velyka Novosilka area
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War also believe that Russian forces are trying to use the capture of the town of Velyka Novosilka to advance further north from the settlement towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
It is noted that Russian forces recently resumed offensive operations to the northeast, north, and west of Velyka Novosilka after a temporary pause in attacks in these areas for several weeks following the capture of the town at the end of January 2025.
Geolocation footage released on February 20 indicates that Russian troops captured the village of Novoocheretuvate to the northwest of Velyka Novosilka, after recently crossing the Mokri Yaly River. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) played a decisive role in crossing the river and capturing the settlement.
The report also mentions that Russian forces may have used a dry section of the Mokri Yaly River near Novoocheretuvate to advance towards the settlement, as, according to preliminary estimates by the ISW, the river could pose a significant obstacle for the Russians.
According to ISW's preliminary assessments, the Russian military command may have either redeployed a large portion of the Eastern Military District to another section of the front or left parts of the district in the direction of Velyka Novosilka to continue advancing towards the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Additionally, Russian forces have intensified their offensive operations on the northeastern and western flanks of Velyka Novosilka. A Russian military blogger on February 21 posted footage allegedly showing units of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting an enhanced mechanized attack with a platoon near Novosilka (to the west of Velyka Novosilka). Recently, Russian forces also carried out a mechanized attack with battalion-sized forces near the village of Bahatyr (to the west of Kurakhove and northeast of Velyka Novosilka).
Another Russian blogger claimed on February 20 that units of the Russian 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army Corps, OMBR) recently breached Ukrainian defenses north of Vremivka (to the west of Velyka Novosilka) and captured several strongholds in the area. Russian military bloggers also asserted that Russian forces have recently advanced west of Velyka Novosilka, as well as east and south of Novosilka, but ISW could not find confirmation of these claims.
Another Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces are attacking Skudne (to the northwest of Novoocheretuvate) and in the direction of Burlatske and Pryvilne (to the northwest and west of Velyka Novosilka). The blogger noted that the Russian military command is attempting to penetrate weak points along the Ukrainian defensive line and advance towards the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Situation on the front and the Russian shelling
On February 21, the number of battles decreased in the Pokrovsk direction. Over the day, Russian forces lost more than 200 soldiers and a rare flamethrower system.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Defense Forces are holding key positions on the front.
During the night of February 22, the Russian army launched a massive attack on Ukraine using Shahed drones.
In the Kyiv region, falling debris caused a fire, resulting in the death of a Ukrzaliznytsia worker.
