ISW predicts Russia's next steps in Ukraine this summer
Illustrative photo: ISW explains what to expect from Russia at the front this summer (Getty Images)
Russia's summer offensive may be concentrated in three directions that the enemy has been reinforcing with units over the past five months, says Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
According to Evans, the focus will likely be on the directions of Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Novopavlivka. Over the past five months, the enemy has redeployed several units from the areas of Velyka Novosilka and Orikhiv to the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area, which may indicate plans to reinforce these axes ahead of another possible phase of active hostilities.
She added that the enemy is advancing toward Pokrovsk and has been laying the groundwork for its encirclement for a year. In the summer of 2025, Russian forces may intensify these efforts.
In particular, Russia recently carried out several attacks in the southern part of the Belgorod region, which may suggest an attempt to expand the foothold in the northern part of the Kharkiv region. However, Russia has made little progress in the Kharkiv direction for nearly a year, making it unlikely that this axis will be prioritized this summer.
Russia opts for war of attrition
As Evans explains, since early 2022, the enemy has not demonstrated the capability to conduct rapid mechanized maneuvers, and the effort to seize the Donetsk region has turned into a years-long campaign for the Russians.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory, premised on slow, highly attritional infantry advances, seems to have allowed the Russian military command to be content with only advancing 1-2 kilometers per day at significant personnel losses. We are unlikely to see any significant shift in Russian battlefield tactics or capabilities that would significantly alter Russia's ability to conduct deep penetrations and seize large swathes of territory in the near term," she explained.
Attempt to enter Dnipropetrovsk region
The ISW analyst also noted that in the coming weeks or months, Russian forces might attempt to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region. The administrative border is about three kilometers from the nearest enemy position, but in recent months the enemy has been unable to break through.
“Russian forces may cross into the easternmost Dnipropetrovsk region in the coming weeks and months, but Russian gains in the Dnipropetrovsk region will likely be just as slow and grinding as in Donetsk region, so long as Ukrainian forces maintain similar defensive and drone capabilities in these areas,” she added.
Russian offensive plans
Western leadership sources have claimed that Russia plans to continue its offensive this summer. For example, a representative of the United States assumed that the likely goal of the offensive was to seize more territory in eastern Ukraine.
Recently, Russian President Putin also announced plans to create a so-called "buffer zone" along the border with Ukraine.
