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ISW explains why Putin exaggerates Russia's successes in Kursk region

ISW explains why Putin exaggerates Russia's successes in Kursk region Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has continued to exaggerate Russia's successes in the Kursk region, likely in an attempt to convince Russians of the capabilities of the Russian military to suppress the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operations, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On Friday, October 25, Putin gave an interview to the channel Rossiya 1, where he responded to his earlier statements made on October 24, claiming that Russian troops had blocked around 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. During the discussion, the dictator reiterated his assertion, stating that the surrounded Ukrainian forces don't even realize they are encircled.

Additionally, Putin claimed that Ukrainian troops had lost control over the surrounded units and emphasized that the Russian Ministry of Defense had not publicly reported the supposed successful penetration of Russian forces into certain Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.

Analysts note that the Russian President once again failed to acknowledge that the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk extends from the Ukrainian-Russian international border, allowing Ukrainian forces to freely cross sections of this border under Ukrainian control.

In response, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi dismissed Putin's December 24 claim that Ukrainian forces were encircled and suffering significant losses. He reported that Russian losses since August 8 amounted to 17,819 personnel, including 711 prisoners of war.

ISW conclusions

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cannot independently verify Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties. However, reports from both Ukraine and Russia suggest that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to operate in the Kursk region.

Meanwhile, Putin's exaggerated claims about Ukrainian losses are likely part of his efforts to justify Russia's inability to decisively repel the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk nearly three months into the conflict, especially amid the potential rapid deployment of North Korean troops for combat in the area.

ISW estimates indicate that Putin has made it clear that Western fatigue over Ukraine encourages Russia to continue the war and adhere to its theory of victory. This was particularly evident in his response to a journalist's question following the conclusion of the BRICS summit in Kazan.