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ISW experts explained how frosts change military actions in Ukraine

ISW experts explained how frosts change military actions in Ukraine How the frosts will change military actions in Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)

The persistent frost in Ukraine is likely to complicate operations on the front but could create a more favorable ground for mechanized maneuver warfare, as the ground is expected to freeze significantly in the coming weeks, according to the ISW report.

Ukrainian military officials note that due to the cold weather, Russian forces are using fewer barrage munitions. Additionally, the occupiers are employing significantly fewer drones due to the risk of engine freezing.

A Ukrainian brigade officer operating near Bakhmut reported on January 10 that the nighttime temperature drops to -18 degrees Celsius, making it challenging for personnel to stay at observation posts for more than a few hours. He mentioned that the intensity of Russian infantry attacks in the Bakhmut sector has decreased, likely due to the significant temperature drop.

It is highlighted that the combination of low temperatures and deep snowfall may limit maneuverability, but the frozen ground could improve movement across rough terrain throughout January and February.

ISW experts continue to believe that Russian forces are likely to attempt to support or intensify local offensive operations across the entire front line in eastern Ukraine, trying to seize and hold the initiative regardless of weather and terrain conditions.

Key findings by ISW:

  • The ability of Russia to conduct rotations at the operational level will likely enable Russian Forces to maintain the overall pace of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine shortly.

  • On January 11, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the spokesperson for the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, announced that the parliament had recalled the draft law on mobilization for further refinement following discussions between Ukrainian lawmakers and political and military leadership.

  • The Russian Black Sea Fleet may find it challenging to compensate for the loss of basic infrastructure after the withdrawal of naval forces from the main base of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea.

  • Ukrainian and Russian Forces have continued positional fighting across the entire front.

Earlier, British intelligence shared insights on how frost and snow would impact military operations in Ukraine.