ISW experts explain Russia's purpose in frightening Western countries with nuclear exercises
The Kremlin is likely to reinvigorate its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making, using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulations, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to ISW experts, reflexive control is a key element of Russia's hybrid warfare toolkit. This tactic is based on shaping the opponent's thinking through deliberate rhetoric and information operations in such a way that they later voluntarily take actions beneficial to Russia.
Russia has often used this concept in the form of nuclear saber-rattling during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine to compel the West to cease military support to Kyiv.
Analysts note that Russian officials are crucial elements of Russia's efforts to use nuclear rhetoric as a form of reflexive control. Russian officials consistently link nuclear readiness exercises and vague nuclear retaliation threats to key Western political decisions regarding the war in Ukraine.
What preceded this
Yesterday, May 6, the Ministry of Defense of Russia announced preparations for nuclear drills. During the drills, the Russian forces plan to practice the preparation for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Kremlin justifies the preparation for the drills by citing provocative actions by Western countries.
Recently the UK's Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, stated that his country allows Ukraine to use British weapons to strike targets in Russia.
The Pentagon also stated that Russia's plans to conduct nuclear drills are another example of the Kremlin's irresponsible rhetoric.