ISW analyzes results of Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia
Illustrative photo: one of the delegation members at the negotiations, Ukraine's Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov (Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)
The agreements reached following the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Riyadh are unclear and ambiguous, leaving room for numerous discrepancies between the parties. This raises doubts about the effective implementation of the ceasefire in practice, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It is reported that American, Ukrainian, and Russian officials reached certain agreements regarding a temporary ceasefire on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. However, the details of these agreements remain unclear, and it is difficult to assess their specifics in the absence of officially published joint agreements signed by Russia and Ukraine.
The ISW analyzed statements from Ukraine's Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, and Kremlin officials, concluding that Russia and Ukraine likely have not yet agreed on whether the ceasefire regime took effect as of March 25.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Putin continues to reject the temporary ceasefire proposed by Trump and Zelenskyy along the frontlines. This is despite his agreement to some form of ceasefire for strikes on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea.
Analysts are convinced that Putin's persistent delay and intransigence hinder Trump's efforts to secure a long-term and stable peace settlement.
In particular, ISW noted that the US did not provide Russia with the necessary sanctions relief, as was the case when Ukraine and Russia agreed on the grain deal in July 2022.
The Institute believes that the US will likely need to cooperate with the European Union to lift certain sanctions and restrictions on Russian agricultural, financial, and trade enterprises to restore Russia's access to international agricultural and fertilizer markets.
In this context, US President Donald Trump stated that the United States is considering the possibility of lifting certain sanctions against Russia.
"Establishing the initial grain deal in July 2022 did not require any sanctions relief, and reinstating the grain deal likely similarly does not require preliminary sanctions relief. Establishing a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea does not require preliminary sanctions relief," the ISW report reads.
The Institute noted that official statements from the Kremlin are vague and include demands for a ceasefire that are not mentioned in official US or Ukrainian statements. These messages leave room for discrepancies between the parties, which will be involved in interpreting agreements, lifting sanctions, and monitoring potential violations.
The report further highlights that the Kremlin's official statement does not clearly specify the particular sanctions and restrictions it demands the West to lift in advance, nor the specific financial institutions and companies involved.
"The Kremlin statement also does not specify the actors that will interpret the parameters of these restrictions, monitor lifting these restrictions, and verify all parties' compliance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine, Russia, and the US issued separate statements because the US-Ukrainian meetings did not discuss US-Russian efforts to assist restoring Russian access to agricultural and trade markets," the ISW report states.
Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations
Over the past weekend, negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place in Saudi Arabia with US mediation.
Following the talks, Ukrainian and American officials announced that both sides had agreed to cease all attacks in the Black Sea and the use of commercial vessels for military purposes. The parties also agreed to halt strikes on the energy infrastructure of both Ukraine and Russia.
Meanwhile, the US supported further discussions on the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilians, and the return of children deported by Russia from occupied Ukrainian territories.
However, the Kremlin presented its version of the outcomes of the negotiations. According to Moscow, the US promised to assist in the restoration of Russian agricultural exports and fertilizers, as well as the lifting of sanctions on companies producing and exporting such goods.
Additionally, Moscow listed Ukrainian energy infrastructure objects it promised not to attack. However, Ukraine and the US did not confirm these Russian claims.
In its final statement, the US outlined the results of the agreements, which were closely aligned with the Ukrainian side's version. However, it lacked provisions on lifting restrictions on Russia for the ceasefire regime in the Black Sea.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed doubt about Russia's commitment to fulfilling the ceasefire terms.
