Israel, Hamas, Iran: Is major conflict imminent in the Middle East?
Hamas militants (photo: Getty Images)
The situation in Israel and its surroundings has significantly escalated in recent days, following a missile attack by Hezbollah militants on a stadium and Israel's retaliatory strike on Beirut. The elimination of one of Hamas's leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, could elevate the escalation to a new level.
For updates on how the situation is unfolding and whether it might lead to a larger war, read the material by RBC-Ukraine.
Contents
- Series of painful strikes
- A public slap to Iran
- Diverging views in Iran
- Impact of Haniyeh's death on Hamas
Series of painful strikes
Attacks by the Iran-aligned group Hezbollah on Israeli territory have been ongoing since October 7 of last year, with a particularly deadly strike on July 27 targeting the village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. The attack resulted in the deaths of 12 people, mostly children and teenagers, and around 40 others were injured.
Israel prepared its response for several days, and on the night of July 31, it carried out a strike on a Hezbollah target in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, killing senior Hezbollah advisor Fouad Shukr, also known as Haj Mohsen. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed his elimination.
A few hours later, a more politically significant incident occurred in Tehran. Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was a leading figure in the group, was killed when a missile struck his residence. The Israeli side did not comment on the attack at the time of preparing the material (though Israel often refrains from official comments on such cases). The extent to which internal Iranian forces were involved in this operation will also become known later.
If it is ultimately confirmed that Israel was responsible for the death of the Hamas leader, it would send a strong message that Israel can reach its enemies virtually anywhere. Although immediately after the elimination of Haniyeh in the capital of Iran, Israel's most powerful enemy state, no one doubts this anymore.
A public slap to Iran
The elimination of Ismail Haniyeh took place in Tehran at a symbolic moment. He had arrived to attend the inauguration of newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian.
It is worth noting that earlier this year, former President Ebrahim Raisi died in Iran, necessitating early elections, which were won by the liberal Masoud Pezeshkian, who was determined to improve relations with the West.
The killing of the Hamas leader is a public slap to Iran that it cannot ignore. The question remains, however, how exactly Iran will respond.
In similar situations before, Iran has attempted to balance its response. For instance, on April 5 of this year, Israel attacked Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus, Syria. Under international law, this is Iranian territory, so the attack was perceived as a violation of Iranian sovereignty. Iran's response was harsh but more demonstrative, involving the launch of over a hundred cruise missiles and drones at Israeli territory, of which 99% were intercepted.
It later emerged that Iran had warned the United States of the attack through diplomatic channels. Furthermore, Israel’s defense against the Iranian attack was supported by the US, the UK, and several other countries. Following the attack, Iran’s permanent mission to the UN stated that the issue was resolved, but that Tehran's response would be much harsher if there were another attack.
At that time, Iran was interested in keeping Israel on edge through its proxy, Hezbollah, but did not wish to escalate to a full-scale war. This time, all Iranian leaders are similarly proclaiming plans for a tough response to Israel. However, the specifics of their reaction remain to be seen.
Diverging views in Iran
Among the circle of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, there are several influential factions.
One faction has bet on the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, with hopes of potential resumption of relations with the West. Despite the limited influence of the President on foreign policy in Iran, he regularly advocates for a return to the so-called "nuclear deal."
Under the 2015 agreement, Iran limited its nuclear program in exchange for a reduction in economic sanctions. However, in 2018, then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement.
Currently, the Biden-Harris administration in the US is also sending positive signals. On July 29, Principal Deputy Spokesperson for the United States Department of State Vedant Patel stated that the US is ready to resume negotiations regardless of changes in the Iranian presidency.
On July 28, the US informed Iran of the White House's readiness to negotiate a swift return to the nuclear deal with minor amendments, according to Kuwaiti agency Al-Jarida, citing a source from Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
The source mentioned that the US President is ready to sign an agreement before his term ends. Negotiations between the US and Iran regarding a return to the nuclear deal have been ongoing for some time, but the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel and the death of the Iranian President have negatively impacted the negotiations.
This doesn’t negate potential issues if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. However, it might benefit Kamala Harris in the election race.
Overall, the US is focused on preventing a large-scale war in the region and is working to ensure that Israel acts against Hamas and Hezbollah in a measured manner.
On the other hand, there are conservative factions within the Supreme Leader’s circle that oppose rapprochement with the West, advocate for the rapid development of nuclear warheads, and support Iran's more aggressive policy in the Middle East, as well as continued cooperation with Russia and China.
Primarily, these are elite groups connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Their interests include a strong response to the elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, as such actions would automatically pause any negotiations on restoring the nuclear deal and potential rapprochement with the US.
Impact of Haniyeh's death on Hamas
Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, had lived in exile for many years, primarily in Qatar. Following the attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, he declined to return to the Gaza Strip but was involved in negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire and the return of hostages. With his death, the likelihood of reaching any agreement has sharply decreased.
However, Haniyeh did not influence Hamas's military leadership, which is based in the Gaza Strip and operates autonomously. Moreover, there have been significant tensions between the military and political leadership of the group in recent times.
Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, called Haniyeh’s assassination a dangerous event with serious consequences for the entire region. Yet, given the significant loss of military capacity, Hamas has limited options for attacks against Israel.
However, the killing of Hamas’s political leader has stirred unrest among the Palestinian population. Groups operating in the West Bank have called for a general strike in protest against Haniyeh’s death.
Thus, the situation in the Middle East has once again seriously escalated. However, alongside forces interested in further escalation, there are also many influential players determined to prevent a large-scale war in the region.
Sources: public statements from Israeli and Iranian politicians, Hamas leaders, and materials from the Jerusalem Post and IRNA.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has been conducting a military operation in the Gaza Strip in response to a terrorist attack by Hamas.
