Is new Russian offensive threatening Sumy and Kharkiv? Expert analysis
Illustrative photo: expert explains what the new Russian offensive depends on (Getty Images)
In addition to the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are also trying to operate in the Kharkiv and Sumy directions. And these are not just attempts to "probe" the defense — heavy fighting is taking place there, military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi said in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"The enemy is making every effort to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead and push the Ukrainian contingent out of the Kursk region. But so far, without success," Narozhnyi noted.
The expert explained that as long as the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region exists, the possibility of a large-scale offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv regions is unrealistic.
He also drew attention to the intensity of the fighting, noting that the enemy is currently engaging in around 150–160 clashes per day, dropping 120–140 aerial bombs and conducting 5,000–7,000 artillery strikes daily.
“It’s unlikely they’ll be able to increase this pace, even with the redeployment of reserves,” the expert said.
He added that the historical maximum was around 190 clashes per day, and such intensity lasted only a few days.
According to him, we are currently at the beginning of the spring-summer campaign. The expert considers a sudden offensive from a new direction unlikely, as the enemy has already outlined its possible axes — Sumy and Kharkiv regions. However, he emphasized that "we should not expect any rapid breakthrough of the front there," since Russia does not have enough reserves or resources for such an offensive.
He also noted that Russian forces are pushing from the Lyman direction toward Kupiansk, where they have achieved some tactical success. This, according to the expert, is an attempt to outflank the defenders of the Kharkiv region.
As for the Sumy region, he stressed: "It’s important to understand what the Sumy region is. The Sumy region is forest." According to him, the enemy has entered the village of Novenke and is trying to gain a foothold there. Beyond that lies Basivka, separated from Yunakivka by a river that would need to be crossed.
"That’s always a huge challenge. And beyond that is a vast forest on the way to Sumy. And this forest will become a massive natural fortress," the expert said.
He added that the Russian forces have not even reached Yunakivka yet, and fighting has not started in other parts of the Sumy region. Meanwhile, in the north of the region, artillery strikes are being carried out on Hlukhiv and other towns, but the enemy has not launched a ground operation.
"Sixty thousand is a relatively small number. They have over 100,000 troops in the Pokrovsk direction. And we are successfully repelling those 100,000. They can’t achieve anything with that number of troops," the expert concluded, adding that in the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy group (30,000–40,000 troops) is also incapable of achieving its objectives.
Threat of a Russian offensive
Ukrainian forces are preparing for a possible intensification of Russian offensive operations by late spring or early summer along nearly the entire front line.
According to RBC-Ukraine sources, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not rule out that the enemy may step up its offensive in the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv regions. Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi has stated that Russia has already launched a new offensive campaign in these directions.
Syrskyi also noted that in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated around 16 square kilometers of territory in the Donetsk region.
More details on whether Russia is planning a large-scale offensive can be found in RBC-Ukraine’s material.
