Impact of Kakhovka explosion on Ukrainian counteroffensive outcome - ISW
How the dam explosion influenced the course of the Ukrainian counteroffensive (photo: Getty Images)
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' operations on the eastern shore of the Kherson region in October drew the Russian occupiers' forces away from other parts of the front and could have had a similar or even better effect in June at the beginning of the counteroffensive. But at that point, the situation was affected by the Russians' blowing up of the Kakhovka dam, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The report states that the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam on June 6 delayed the crossing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces across the Dnipro River, which was likely intended to support counteroffensive operations.
On December 26, the Associated Press published an interview with Ukrainian Special Operations Forces soldiers, in which they said they were preparing to cross the Dnipro to the left bank of the Kherson region in late May 2023. However, the destruction of a hydroelectric dam and subsequent flooding in the region postponed these plans.
Ukrainian personnel reportedly made limited crossing attempts in July, August, and September of this year, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not launch a larger-scale crossing to establish a bridgehead on the eastern bank until mid-October.
The operations of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the eastern shore of the Kherson region in October drew Russian forces away from other parts of the front and would likely have had a similar or even more pronounced effect in June 2023 at the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, experts said.
The report notes that Russian troops also redeployed units of the 7th Airborne Division from the Kherson region after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and continued to rely on them as critical elements of Russian defense in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region and the area near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
ISW experts consider it unlikely that the Russian command would have transferred these elements away from Kherson in the event of a Ukrainian crossing in June 2023.
"Significant Ukrainian ground operations in the left bank of Kherson region coordinated with Ukrainian counteroffensive operations throughout southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut would have placed greater pressure on Russian forces and would likely have limited the Russian military’s ability to balance manpower and materiel requirements for defensive operations in four directions," the report states.
Therefore, the experts conclude that the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam likely played a role in the outcome of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant
On the night of June 6, Russian occupants blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. This caused the flooding of several settlements in the Kherson region. The temporarily occupied left bank suffered the most.
Some residents of the region lost their homes as a result of such actions by Russian soldiers.
The United Nations stated that the explosion of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023 was an environmental disaster of a large scale that went beyond Ukraine.
