Imitation for Trump: Why Russia playing with Tu-95 takeoffs and possibility of major attack

On November 15, at about 6 a.m. Kyiv time, it became known that 6 Russian Tu-95MS planes took off from the Olenya airfield, heading southeast. Later, the number of bombers in the air increased to 8.

According to the monitoring channels, the planes were in the launch zones, but later turned back to their base points and partially landed at Engels and Diagilevo airfields.

In a number of regions, the Ukrainian Air Force sounded the alarm due to the missile threat, but at 10:05 a.m. Kyiv time they called it quits.

Purpose of the simulated strikes by Russia

“Putin just wants to send signals that he can still hit the Ukrainian energy sector, that he still has the capabilities and capacity to do so, he has the planes, he has the missiles. So he is simply using blackmail,” Musiienko said in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.

According to the expert, such actions of the Russian dictator are designed for both Ukrainians and the team of the newly elected US President Donald Trump to show that Russia can allegedly carry out such attacks. He noted that on the one hand, this already looks somewhat frivolous and even ridiculous. And here's why.

“We all realize that this is not the first possible attack. That in principle, they have a lot ready for this and can carry it out. And these maneuvers now, they say, are preparations for something large-scale, creating tension, that there will be a large-scale attack - these are all exclusively psychological factors,” Musiienko explains.

And the second point, according to the interlocutor, is that Moscow can inflate the atmosphere and the situation. Like, creating the impression that “we will attack you and this attack will be different, you can see how seriously they are preparing for it.”

“In this regard, I do not rule out that Russia may launch a larger-scale missile attack soon. Such risks remain, but so far it looks more like a big imitation and a political and psychological game than a military one,” Musiienko says.

The expert does not rule out that such imitations of a massive missile strike could become systemic.

“At least, they will happen from time to time. But I do not exclude that Russia may strike. That is, they can prepare and launch a larger-scale strike,” Musiienko says.

Is Russia ready for massive missile attack?

The expert said that the Russians had time to accumulate missiles. But now Putin is trying to use the so-called Trump cards he does not have so much to secure what he thinks is a strong position in future negotiations.

“And this strong position, from his point of view, is that he has airplanes, he has missiles, and he needs to show it. Right now, he is showing that the aircraft are taking off and there could be a strike at any moment. He is still at this stage,” Musiienko says.

According to him, this indicates that the Russian dictator is stretching the moment. That is, Russia does not strike immediately but tries to use the element of imitation launches of intimidation by any means necessary.

“And then, perhaps, there will be launches of these missiles, which indicates that he is not doing well either. And he is not entirely sure that missile strikes alone can change the situation significantly,” Musiienko emphasizes.

Is Russia waiting for more severe frosts to cause more damage to Ukraine?

According to the experts, the weather factor is not the reason why Russian massive missile attacks have not yet taken place.

“What if there are no severe frosts? Ukraine is now increasingly moving to a temperate Mediterranean climate. And if there are no severe winters at all, what can we expect? We have launched the heating season. With problems, but still. Everything is fine. That is, it was possible to hit then. Now the weather conditions are not easy either. It's already mid-November. It's not about the fact that Russia is expecting more severe frosts. I think there are other factors, though. These are not weather conditions,” the expert summarizes.

On Monday, November 11, Russia already carried out an imitation of a massive missile strike on Ukraine. However, then Russia was not only sending up Tu-95MS bombers but also MiG-31K fighters capable of carrying Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles. As a result, the air alert was announced in all Ukrainian regions.

Although Russia did not launch any missiles, preventive blackouts were introduced in Kyiv and many regions to protect the energy sector. Read more about this in the RBC-Ukraine article.

Sources: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, monitoring channels, as well as an exclusive commentary by Oleksandr Musiienko, Head of the Center for Military Legal Studies.