How Russia changing its approach to missile strikes: Intelligence explanation
Photo: Vadym Skibitskyi (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Russian forces have moved away from the straightforward tactic of massive missile strikes on Ukraine. It has become much more difficult for air defense forces, states Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
"First, the strikes have become more complex. Second, both the Russians and we have learned to properly plan strikes on targets while using fewer missiles and unmanned aerial systems to achieve maximum results. Third, priority targets are selected to ensure the greatest possible impact," he said.
According to him, the strikes are not only combined but also coordinated in time: missiles are launched first, followed by drones, and then more missiles. This overloads the air defense system. "The Russians understand our capabilities and know where our air defense systems are located in order to bypass them," he added.
Skibitskyi noted that previously, around 70 missiles were indeed launched at once, all following the same route — entering through the Luhansk region and heading directly toward Kyiv. "Now, you won’t see that anymore. Missiles approach from different directions, fly across Ukraine, bypass all air defense assets and zones, and attempt to reach their targets," the intelligence official explained.
He stated that the situation has become significantly more challenging. "We have to maneuver our air defense forces and assets. Secondly, we understand when the Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance on targets and which objects they are monitoring. After a strike, they immediately conduct additional reconnaissance and launch follow-up strikes within a short period. Essentially, this is about finishing off the targets they failed to destroy in the initial strikes," he said.
The intelligence representative reminded that when Russian forces previously launched 70 missiles, their effectiveness was not always high. "Our air defense system performed very well when it had a sufficient supply of anti-aircraft missiles. Moreover, as I mentioned, those were simple, straightforward strikes. Now, it’s a completely different scenario," he added.
"Moreover, while they previously used 20-30 unmanned aerial vehicles in a single strike, now it’s 150. This approach by the enemy requires a completely different level of attention from the air defense system and places a much greater strain on it. Earlier, they launched drones late in the evening, and they would reach their targets by morning. Now, they can launch drones starting in the morning. The latest trend is launching drones in the evening, which begin reaching targets on our territory at 11 p.m. and continue until morning. This means the attacks are now continuous, increasing the overall threat level," Skibitskyi explained.
According to Defense Intelligence, Russia's missile production in 2025 has not changed significantly compared to 2024. Russia has increased the production of Kh-101 cruise missiles while reducing the number of missiles for the Kalibr system. Additionally, Russia plans to increase the production of Kinzhal missiles and ballistic missiles for the Iskander system.
