How many more years of war Russia's economy can withstand: Expert forecast
Photo: Russia's economy has limited resilience (Getty Images)
The Russian economy will be able to finance the war against Ukraine at its current level of intensity for two more years, provided that China continues supporting it by purchasing its oil, according to the former presidential economic adviser Oleh Ustenko.
"For 24 months, they will be able to function this way (with China's support - ed.)," says Oleh Ustenko.
If the status quo changes and China begins reducing purchases of Russian oil, this timeframe could shrink to 12 months, though even in that case, Russia's economy will not collapse, Ustenko added.
There are already signs that Beijing will cut purchases of Russian oil transported by sea. China will continue receiving Russian oil via pipelines, Ustenko notes, but a reduction in seaborne supplies will deprive Russia of at least 10 billion dollars a year.
According to Ustenko, Russia understands that under current conditions, in roughly two years it will no longer have the same capacity for offensive operations. This is why Moscow is trying to achieve as much as possible during this period and will likely increase its level of aggression.
Russia's economy continues to lose ground amid its protracted war against Ukraine and international sanctions. Key sectors are in decline, and the banking system is preparing for possible state support to avoid collapse.
In early September, Sberbank CEO German Gref admitted that Russia's economic growth had effectively stalled in the second quarter of 2025.
On 24 November, Reuters reported that Russia’s oil and gas revenues for November may drop by roughly 35% compared to the same month last year.
