Donbas defense: Current battlefield dynamics and Ukraine’s efforts to maintain stability at front

Contents

• Velyka Novosilka on the brink of capture
• Threats to the Defence Forces on the Kurakhove ledge
• Russia attempts to encircle Pokrovsk
• Toretsk and Chasiv Yar hold out after months of fighting
• Movement towards Oskil and focus on Lyman
• Kursk region remains a buffer zone
• Will Ukraine manage to stabilize the front?

Velyka Novosilka on the brink of capture

The village of Velyka Novosilka, a crucial stronghold at the intersection of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, has been under siege by the Russian army since December 2024. In mid-January, the aggressor captured the villages of Neskuchne and Vremivka from the southwest, effectively completing the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka, as just a few weeks ago they reached the Mokri Yaly River near the village of Novyi Komar.

Fierce fighting is currently underway in the village itself, although, according to the DeepState project map and information from some OSINT analysts, the Defense Forces may have already withdrawn from this settlement. In any case, it remains unclear how many forces are still present, but they are unlikely to hold out for long.

Last week, Russian Z-publics (Russian pro-war media - ed.) reported an offensive from three directions and claimed that capturing the village was a matter of time. Footage with Russian flags appeared online, and the day before, the aggressor country's Ministry of Defense announced full control over Velyka Novosilka.

Photo: Russian troops are close to capturing Velyka Novosilka (deepstatemap.live)

Officially, the Ukrainian side denies this information. Today, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops, Viktor Trehubov, reported that the Defense Forces have left the southern part of the settlement.

"Any further actions could have led to encirclement and unnecessary losses. As of now, the Russians have entered a significant part of the settlement, while Ukrainians are holding certain positions to prevent them (the Russians) from advancing further," he said.

According to former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ihor Romanenko, Ukrainian forces still control a small north-western part of Velyka Novosilka. On DeepState maps, this area is marked as a grey zone.

"The issue is not so much about percentages, but how the combat operations will unfold from here. At the moment, from the standpoint of a stronghold, it has effectively lost its significance. In my opinion, the focus now is on forming defensive lines beyond Velyka Novosilka and preventing rapid advances," he said in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.

Threats to the Defence Forces on the Kurakhove ledge

After withdrawing from Kurakhove, Ukrainian forces in this ledge remain under the threat of encirclement. To the west of the city, the defense lines follow the Vovcha River to the north and the Sukhi Yaly River to the south, with the Russian troops attempting to break through to the point where these rivers converge near Andriivka and Kostiantynopil.

The Russian forces have already reached the outskirts of Andriivka and have come close to Kostiantynopil. Meanwhile, the group advancing from Kurakhove is storming Ukrainian positions in the village of Dachne. It is possible that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may need to retreat further west along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia highway. However, it remains unclear where and when they will be able to establish a stable defense.

Photo: Defense Forces under threat of encirclement at the Kurakhove ledge (deepstatemap.live)

At the same time, Ukrainian forces will face threats of attacks from both the north and the south, especially if Velyka Novosilka is captured, which would allow the enemy to advance on the highway with a wide front. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that this could indicate where Russia will launch its offensive in the spring. The first option is toward the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region, while the second is aimed at Pokrovsk.

Most likely, both options are being considered, and the Russian forces would like to advance at least a few hundred meters into the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to Romanenko. However, the absolute priority will be the capture of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where a tactical-level strategy will be implemented to cut off the Defense Forces' logistical routes.

"Fighting on two fronts simultaneously is beyond their (the Russian forces' - ed.) capabilities. Therefore, I believe the main focus will be the Pokrovsk direction. A few months ago, they tried to capture the city, but our reserves halted their offensive momentum," the expert added.

Russia attempts to encircle Pokrovsk

Against the backdrop of the difficult situation in Velyka Novosilka, the situation in Pokrovsk, an important strategic city, appears more optimistic. Russian forces have still not penetrated the city, but the flanks around it continue to weaken.

In December, the enemy launched a strike, crossed the Solona River, and reached the western outskirts of Pokrovsk. Currently, fighting is ongoing 7-12 km to the west, near the industrial complex by the villages of Kotlyne and Udachne. Additionally, the Russian troops are advancing along the river further west, stretching the Ukrainian defense. Another group has become active, capturing Vozdvyzhenka and reaching the E50 highway east of Pokrovsk.

Photo: The enemy attempts to encircle Pokrovsk from the west and east (deepstatemap.live)

If Russian forces manage to cut off the road to Dnipro from the west, the defense of Pokrovsk will weaken significantly. After that, the battle for the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration will begin. The stakes are high, as its capture would open the way to both Dnipro and the northern districts of the Donetsk region.

According to the spokesperson for Khortytsia Viktor Trehubov, the intensity of the attacks has increased, and nearly half of the assaults are focused on the Pokrovsk direction. The Russian troops are not attacking the city head-on but are trying to encircle and bypass it, forcing the Ukrainian garrison to withdraw.

Although it is hoped that the offensive plan will fail if another fortress in Donbas falls, it would mean that the Russian forces have succeeded in their plan, believes Romanenko.

"They may abandon it if we gain resources, which we currently do not have. In my opinion, it is wrong to ask when the battle for Pokrovsk will begin. It is happening before our eyes. Right now, their reconnaissance and sabotage groups are looking for weak spots in Pokrovsk's defense," the source explained.

Toretsk and Chasiv Yar hold out after months of fighting

The fighting here is different from the offensive in the southern Donetsk region. The enemy has been trying to squeeze the Ukrainian Defence Forces out of Chasiv Yar at a dominant height for over a year. The battle for the Toretsk agglomeration has been ongoing since the summer of 2024, and the progress of the enemy rarely exceeds a few hundred meters per week.

Street battles in Toretsk are already taking place on the northern and eastern outskirts, where mines and spoil heaps are located. Almost all of the residential areas are occupied by the Russian troops, with the Ukrainian resistance center located along the railway and the industrial zone to the west of the city. Recently, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture limited positions, and the military reports that they continue to hold the administrative boundaries of Toretsk.

In Chasiv Yar, the enemy has entered the territory of the refractory plant, the main stronghold of Ukrainian forces. Fighting is taking place in the central part of the city. Z-publics report about the enemy’s advance towards Tsentralna Street in the western part and the southern outskirts, but there is no confirmation of this. According to Ukrainian reports, the Russian forces are hiding and moving along the Siversky Donets - Donbas Canal, with reinforcements from airborne troops, Akhmat forces, and former Wagner fighters.

Photo: after Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, the Russian troops could target the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration (deepstatemap.live)

So far, the Russian Armed Forces have carried out uncoordinated offensives in the center and north of the Donetsk region. However, Western analysts believe that these operations could be consolidated into a major offensive along an arc from Pokrovsk to Chasiv Yar, to capture the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which is supposedly set to be the war's climax.

Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy disagrees with this view. According to him, the Russian forces lack the resources to break through defenses quickly and advance along a single wide front.

"We rarely see attacks with large mechanized columns. To break through the defense on any section, they would need 15-20 tanks, 400 assault troops loaded into armored personnel carriers (APCs) and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), a massive artillery preparation, etc. But there's one thing – almost the entire front line is mined, and nearly everywhere, our artillery is stopping such attacks. And there are drone operators who finish off the enemy after artillery strikes," he explained.

He also pointed out that the enemy currently has around 40,000 soldiers in reserve across the entire front.

"They could break through quickly if they had 300,000 in reserve. But they don’t. At most, they can focus their efforts and continue advancing, like they're doing now in the Pokrovsk direction. But they can’t break through Pokrovsk, they have almost destroyed Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka. Advancing on a wide front towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, they would simply get bogged down. They won't be able to move in 'tight formations,' it won’t work. They’ll continue advancing at a slow pace," he added.

Moreover, there is another important nuance: given Russia's recent tactics of attacking large cities through encirclement, it’s unlikely that they will approach Sloviansk or Kramatorsk head-on. The conditions for an offensive on this agglomeration from different directions – for instance, from the side of Lyman and Siversk – have still not been fully established. There, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to hold their positions.

Movement towards Oskil and focus on Lyman

The operation aimed at advancing the enemy towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north is unfolding along the Lyman-Kupiansk axis. In the fall, they reached the Oskil River south of Kupiansk, but since then, they have been unable to expand their foothold. An attempt to capture the eastern part of Kupiansk with a single armored assault also failed.

At the same time, the enemy managed to secure a foothold on the right bank of the Oskil River north of the district center near Dvorichna. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet managed to eliminate this foothold but have prevented its expansion.

Photo: the enemy is trying to break through to the Oskil River and reach Lyman in Donetsk region (deepstatemap.live)

Now the enemy is trying to reach the Oskil River on a broad front, advancing towards Lyman and Borova. Since the Russian troops are redeploying forces to Lyman, it is unlikely that they will make serious attempts to advance on Kupiansk in the near future, predicts Ihor Romanenko.

"They believe that advancing towards Lyman is more crucial. There, they captured another settlement (the village of Ivankivka, - ed.). They don't have enough forces for all fronts, but they are focusing on specific areas, regrouping, and capturing our land. Unfortunately, this will continue until we find a way to stop it," he noted.

Currently, the Russian forces have concentrated their main efforts on Kolodiaz and Yampolivka. The distance from the frontline to Lyman is 12 kilometers.

Kursk region remains a buffer zone

After a series of setbacks, the Ukrainian forces managed to establish a strong defense around Sudzha, and over the past few months, the frontline has shortened by approximately half.

The Russian grouping mostly consists of the best units from the airborne forces (VDV) and marines, with reinforcements from North Korea also assisting them. However, it is unlikely that they have the same numerical advantage as in the southern part of Donbas.

Photo: Kursk region provides a buffer zone for Ukraine against advances towards Sumy and Kharkiv (deepstatemap.live)

Ukrainian defense holds at three important points — Malaya Loknya, Sverdlikovo, and the southern outskirts of Sudzha. Russian forces are attempting to capture all three points. Particularly fierce battles are taking place around Malaya Loknya, where positions have changed hands multiple times. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are not planning to abandon the Kursk foothold, so it can be assumed that as the enemy advances, resistance will only grow.

Recently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again emphasized the importance of the operation in the Kursk region. "We are maintaining a buffer zone on Russian territory to protect our Sumy and Kharkiv from Russian advances," he said.

Will Ukraine manage to stabilize the front?

Nearly a month ago, Zelenskyy stated that he had tasked the military with stabilizing the front in January. "It’s very difficult. If everything that was promised (by Western partners) arrives — because we have schedules and we are waiting, it’s already on its way, some is in transit. We should receive everything in January," he said.

However, he also clarified that stabilization is possible not only through the supply of new weapons but also thanks to the Ukrainian contingent, which is being armed and undergoing training abroad. In the past few weeks, the enemy has continued to advance, so it seems unlikely that this task will be completed by the end of January.

Last week, the commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, was sent to command the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Grouping. As Zelenskyy said, this will help combine the army's combat work with the proper training of brigades.

"General Drapatyi is indeed going there to stabilize the front," says Pavlo Narozhnyy.

According to him, currently in the East, the Russian forces are advancing because they have an artillery advantage of 1.5-2:1 in terms of the number of shots and barrels. Additionally, they have much larger personnel numbers and maintain air superiority.

In Narozhnyy's view, there are no clear conditions for a rapid stabilization of the front. Even the potential start of a peace process is unlikely to drastically change the situation: Russia continues mobilization, North Korea is supplying weapons, and peace plans currently exist only in Western media outlets.

On the other hand, it may not be entirely ruled out that the situation could change if, by the time of negotiations, both sides agree at least to a temporary ceasefire.

Sources: analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), maps from the DeepState project, statements from the spokesperson of the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Grouping of Troops Viktor Trehubov, and comments from experts Ihor Romanenko and Pavlo Narozhnyy.