FT: Russia modernized Iskander and Kinzhal missiles to outsmart Patriot defenses
Photo: Russia has upgraded its Iskander and Kinzhal missiles to bypass air defense systems (Getty Images)
Russia has upgraded its Iskander and Kinzhal missiles to bypass Ukrainian air defenses. Ahead of winter, the updated missiles seriously damaged drone production plants and critical infrastructure, according to the Financial Times.
Russia upgraded its missiles
According to Ukrainian and Western officials, months of destructive Russian airstrikes indicate that Moscow has succeeded in modifying its missiles to evade Ukrainian air defense.
The bombardments targeting Ukrainian drone manufacturers this summer became a vivid example of how Russia refined its ballistic missiles to more effectively counter US Patriot batteries.
Current and former Ukrainian and Western officials believe Russia has likely modified its mobile Iskander-M system, which launches missiles with an estimated range of up to 500 km, as well as the air-launched Kinzhal ballistic missiles that can travel up to 480 km.
Now the missiles follow a typical trajectory, then change course and dive at a steep angle or perform maneuvers that “confuse and bypass” Patriot interceptors.
This is a game changer for Russia, said one former Ukrainian official. As Kyiv also faces delays in receiving air defense interceptors from the US, the missile campaign has destroyed key military sites and critical infrastructure ahead of winter.
Intercepting ballistic missiles and air defense effectiveness
Ukraine’s interception rate of ballistic missiles improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August, but dropped to 6% in September despite fewer launches.
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that all four Iskander-M missiles launched overnight evaded the country’s defenses and hit their targets.
This summer, at least four drone production plants in Kyiv and the surrounding areas were seriously damaged by missiles. According to public statements by local officials, this included the August 28 strike on a facility producing Turkish Bayraktar drones.
Two missiles launched during that strike targeted the offices of a company designing and producing components for unmanned systems, according to two officials familiar with the incident.
Russian projectiles bypassed Ukrainian air defenses and also damaged the offices of the EU delegation and the British Council located nearby.
Challenges for Patriot systems
Patriot interceptors are the only weapons in Kyiv’s arsenal capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. Moscow’s cruise missiles can be downed with less advanced air defense means, but the upgrades to Russian missiles have made the task more difficult.
A Western official said the first sign of modernization was a noticeable drop in interception effectiveness. Incoming missiles behave differently in the terminal phase, deviating from previously established engagement parameters.
The assessment is confirmed by a report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s special inspector general covering the period from April 1 to June 30. According to the document, Ukraine’s Armed Forces struggled to consistently employ Patriot air defense systems due to recent Russian tactical improvements, including enhancements that allow its missiles to change trajectory and perform maneuvers.
The report cited attacks on June 28 and July 9, when Ukraine’s air defenses managed to shoot down only part of the missiles.
This spring, Russia upgraded the ballistic missiles it uses to strike Ukraine, complicating the work of Patriot systems, which are capable of shooting down ballistic missiles.
Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, provided detailed explanations of what exactly changed in Russian missiles.
In the meantime, the US upgraded its missiles for HIMARS.
