F-16s in Ukraine? Latest updates and likelihood of first combat use
Photo: Ukraine could have received its first F-16s (Getty Images)
Several Western media reported the first batch of F-16 fighter jets had already arrived in Ukraine. Kyiv has neither denied nor confirmed this information officially. According to expert estimates, they will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to affect greatly the pace of the Russian offensive.
Сontents
- What the media say and how many fighters Ukraine could have received
- What Zelenskyy's office and the US say
- Is there enough evidence that F-16s are in Ukraine and should we believe the photos online
- Could F-16s have already repelled Shahed attacks and how fighters can stop the Russian offensive
A number of countries of the fighter jet coalition confirmed in July that Ukraine would receive its first F-16s over the summer. According to The Wall Street Journal, the US will provide advanced equipment for them.
It is about updated Lockheed Martin radars and modern weapons - anti-radar missiles, laser-guided bombs, and medium-range air-to-air missiles.
The question remains how Ukraine will use all of this against the Russians? For example, the Netherlands said that there would be no restrictions, while the United States is not ready to lift all bans.
Ukraine needs at least 128 fighter jets to achieve at least parity with the enemy. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there is a decision about 10-20 so far, but even 50 is nothing.
According to Forbes estimates, partners agreed on a total of 85 units so far. The suppliers are the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium.
What the media say and how many fighters Ukraine could have received
Bloomberg was the first to write about the alleged F-16s in Ukraine. According to its sources, the allies planned to transfer at the end of July and met the deadline. The number of aircraft transferred is small. It is still unclear whether the trained Ukrainian pilots would be able to use them immediately or whether deployment would take longer.
The Times says the batch consists of six units and came from the Netherlands. Fighter jets from Denmark are also due to arrive soon. The Telegraph, citing an unnamed Air Force official, reported that the Ukrainian F-16s had already made their first combat missions. But so far, they have been used only for air defense.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis added to the matter. “Another impossible thing turned out to be totally possible,” he wrote on X.
Aviation expert and leading researcher at the National Aviation University (NAU) Valerii Romanenko is not confident that the planes are definitely in Ukraine. He also explained why yesterday the Western media were reporting about the F-16s.
“These are articles, reports, and money. Besides, for the leading news agencies, whoever is first, people read more. If Bloomberg gave the information, it was picked up by all possible ones. I would not say that the F-16s have definitely arrived,” he told RBC-Ukraine.
What Zelenskyy's office and the US say
Neither Kyiv nor the Western capitals have officially confirmed the F-16s arrived in Ukraine.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, said that the Ukrainian side did not officially confirm or deny the information from Western media.
“We will not comment on it, neither yes nor no. Why? Because it is a factor of essential survival for us. There is no need to say for sure whether we have them or not,” he explained.
He also recommended to wait for official confirmation.
“For a long time, our partners were always saying that they were sending us something. Today they do not make such statements because they realize that it will be a bit odd... Either the president or the commander-in-chief will comment on it,” Podolyak added.
White House spokesman John Kirby avoided answering the question about the rumors.
“You have to talk to the Ukrainians. I'm certainly not going to talk about weapons capabilities,” he said, recalling the July statement at the NATO summit about the start of the process and adding that there is no reason to doubt that the F-16 will be put into service by the end of the summer.
Reuters and the Associated Press, citing unnamed US officials and a Ukrainian lawmaker, confirmed that “the delivery of the fighter jets has been completed.”
Is there enough evidence that F-16s are in Ukraine and should we believe the photos online
There is currently not enough information to say that the F-16s have actually arrived in Ukraine, Romanenko said.
“Firstly, there have been no official statements. This is an event of such a level that the President of Ukraine will announce it, not even the commander of the Air Force or his spokesmen,” he said.
In his opinion, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov or the chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi may make an announcement, if not the president.
“This is probably why there is a slight delay in the information, but in general, there is no such a clear confirmation. Because if they had arrived in Ukraine, the Russians would have detected them first of all with radio equipment and satellite reconnaissance. And Russian news agencies would have confirmed this fact,” the expert explains.
Social media are already spreading photos and videos of the alleged F-16 in the sky over Ukraine. One of them shows the fighter flying over Lviv, with the city hall in the frame. But the specialized media The War Zone is inclined to believe that the photo may be edited.
Valerii Romanenko does not rule out that it could be photoshopped.
“It could be photoshopped, for example, a screenshot from any video in a particular country. Because there are Ukrainian insignia of the Ukrainian Air Force. There are clear spots on the wings and a shield on the tail section. It seems we cannot identify it in the photo. Or, you can easily put these marks on the wings from below with the help of Photoshop. So I would not be sure that these are original photos of Ukrainian F-16s,” he says.
And the most concrete evidence: Ukrainian F-16 jet spotted over Lviv today. pic.twitter.com/Qxuzjx6xz6
— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 31, 2024
Could F-16s have already repelled Shahed attacks and how fighters can stop the Russian offensive
When asked if Western fighters (if they arrived) could have already taken part in repelling drone attacks over the past two days, Romanenko said that he did not rule out this option. But he clarifies that the Shahed drones are not the main job for the F-16.
“However, the Americans were preparing a special system with APKWS missiles, which are very cheap and have laser guidance. It would be very convenient and very cheap to shoot down Shaheds with them. These are 70-mm missiles converted from the Hydra unguided missiles that we are supplied with for attack helicopters. Were F-16s involved in repelling the Shahed attacks? Possibly. If the Americans have equipped the fighters with these missiles, because it is an effective means of destruction,” the source believes.
But there is no confirmation of this yet, as of the fact that the planes have appeared at all.
In any case, the F-16s will not immediately impact the battlefield. In a recent interview, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi said that the fighters would be used in air defense. He also added that they would not approach the front line closer than 40 kilometers.
As soon as we know exactly about the F-16s in the Ukrainian skies, we should expect the following changes.
“As soon as even the first six planes arrive, for the Russians, every Ukrainian plane that takes off will be an F-16. They will be forced to plan serious operations to cover their aircraft, including the carriers of the guided aerial bombs (GABs), with the escort fighters. With Su-35 or Su-30SM of the latest models,” says Romanenko.
He believes that in this case, the number of Russian raids at the front will lower because now the Russians are simply dropping bombs like a conveyor belt. There will be no serious, radical changes in the course of hostilities. But the F-16s will help the Russian offensive to choke faster.
“The basis of their offensive is the destruction of our fortifications on the front line with GABs. What is their tactic? They dropped the GABs on a stronghold and then launched a meat assault. If they didn't repulse it - repeated it a few hours later, until they finally advanced 100 meters. If we reduce drastically the number of GAB strikes, the pace of their offensive will either choke or stop altogether,” the expert concluded.
Read also about the tasks the Western fighters will perform in the first stages.
Sources: Bloomberg, Washington Post, Reuters, New York Times, The Telegraph, The War Zone, Associated Press, Voice of America, statements by Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Presidential Administration, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, and an exclusive commentary by Valerii Romanenko, a leading researcher at the NAU.
