EU leaders seek to circumvent Orbán’s veto on military spending and aid to Ukraine

The EU is already taking steps to bypass Budapest, as it seeks to maintain support for Ukraine against Russian aggression and strengthen Europe's defense industry. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen stated that there are plans to form a partnership among countries that could sidestep any internal opposition.

Several initiatives announced this week by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen do not require support from all member states. These include €150 billion ($160 billion) in new loans and granting member states more financial flexibility for defense spending.

However, officials and diplomats say that the scale of the problem facing Europe will require more radical measures, and discussions will shift toward a larger package. One way to achieve this would be to raise hundreds of billions more through joint borrowing, which Orbán has opposed since reluctantly agreeing to it during the COVID-19 pandemic. This would require a unanimous decision.

Finding a way to deal with Orbán is becoming existential for the EU, said Katarzyna Pisarska, Chair of the Warsaw Security Conference. "What I expect in the coming weeks is an attempt to bypass Hungary through closer cooperation and coalition-of-the-willing schemes."

The rush to secure funding intensified after US President Donald Trump halted aid to Ukraine this week following his now-infamous confrontation with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington. This has forced European nations to urgently rewire their budgets, in a manner similar to the European debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with Germany leading the effort.

'Black sheep'

Orbán, who opposes providing Ukraine with weapons for self-defense and security guarantees to deter Russia in the future, is the only EU leader fully aligned with the new US administration.

Hungary was the only European country that voted alongside the US against a UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Orbán also praised Trump following his dispute in the White House.

During a closed-door EU meeting on March 4, Hungary questioned funding plans, expressing fundamental concerns about joint borrowing, sources said. Orbán signaled his readiness to veto a joint statement at the March 6 emergency summit.

One of the toughest challenges will be finding a way to bypass Hungary’s opposition, said a European government official. Leaders plan to engage Orbán from the outset, but according to another official, the chances of success are slim. The mood is that the EU will not allow itself to be held hostage by a single member state.

For Orbán, such brinkmanship is nothing new, even as the EU imposes unprecedented financial sanctions on Hungary. He may compromise once again, especially when it comes to funding defense industry expansion.

Hungary is developing its defense industry in partnership with Germany’s Rheinmetall AG, and an influx of additional funds would help its struggling economy, just as Orbán faces his most serious political challenger since returning to power in 2010. The next elections are scheduled for spring 2026.

Orbán stated that differences over EU support for Ukraine are “unbridgeable.” However, finding common ground on security is a “strategic question” independent of the war in Ukraine, he said at a briefing in Budapest. “I see a better chance of an agreement on this,” Orbán said.

In the past, the EU has managed to bypass Orbán’s opposition by offering funds or assurances on other matters, such as energy security. Once, when Orbán threatened to veto the EU's invitation for Ukraine to begin membership talks in late 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz convinced him to take a coffee break, allowing the remaining 26 leaders to vote uninterrupted.

Some leaders, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, have demonstrated that Orbán can be swayed before key decisions. She held three meetings with him ahead of a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine, which the EU eventually secured in early 2024.

Options for resolving issue

All of this was before Trump, whose election victory has emboldened Hungary once again. The US President rushed to negotiate with Vladimir Putin in pursuit of a quick deal. Orbán sees both leaders as close allies.

“Orbán feels like he’s riding high,” said Daniel Hegedus, a regional director for central Europe at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. “That’s why it will be almost impossible to convince or coax Orbán into supporting EU arms supplies or security guarantees for Ukraine.”

According to an EU diplomat, European Council President António Costa will attempt to reach a consensus with Orbán at the March 6 summit. If that fails, the bloc will focus on ways to circumvent him rather than arguing all night.

Meanwhile, the primary option for supporting Ukraine involves a coalition of EU member states working alongside the UK on a security guarantee package to ensure the sustainability of any future peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow.

“I think the coalition of the willing is exactly that, what we need in order to bypass some of the obstacles of consensus-based decision making in the European Union where needs be,” Valtonen, the Finnish foreign minister, said.

All of this may only delay a critical moment for a few months, when the EU will need to renew sanctions against Russia, including freezing central bank assets and enforcing various financial, trade, and energy restrictions.

Orbán has repeatedly called for sanctions to be lifted and will likely push for this again, particularly if the US signals a willingness to soften some of its own sanctions.

EU officials are already considering ways to maintain sanctions through majority-vote measures or member-state initiatives if Orbán attempts to block them. However, this will be challenging, as the current framework requires unanimity.

It is clear that Brussels must rethink how it shapes foreign policy, said Pisarska from Warsaw. "It has been a long overdue realization within the EU that the current system is obsolete and doesn’t allow it to respond with the kind of urgency that’s needed.”

As previously reported, the EU’s new €20 billion military aid package for Ukraine is at risk due to Hungary’s stance. However, the €60 billion already allocated for military aid to Ukraine in 2025 is beyond question.