Enemy pushes forward: Why some Ukrainian villages are reoccupied and whether Russia can launch a major offensive
Photo: The Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to withdraw from several villages that were liberated during the 2023 counteroffensive (Getty Images)
The Russian army continues to storm Ukrainian positions. As part of its summer offensive, the enemy has already managed to reoccupy several villages that the Armed Forces liberated in the summer of 2023. The aggressor's tactical advance may continue in the near future.
Why Russia is putting pressure on the villages recaptured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, what are the reasons for the loss of these settlements, and whether the enemy is capable of a major breakthrough - read in the RBC-Ukraine report below.
Contents
- Villages that the Russians recaptured after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023
- Reasons that forced Ukrainian soldiers to retreat and how difficult it will be to regain the lost
- Russia will continue its tactical advance: Is it capable of a major advance?
Villages that the Russians recaptured after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023
At the end of March, the Russians focused on two small villages, among others: Urozhaine and Staromaiorske. The New York Times writes that three months of fierce fighting led to the Russians' capture of both settlements in June. The first is located south of Velyka Novosilka and was recaptured by Ukrainian soldiers during the summer counteroffensive of 2023. The second was also liberated from Russian occupation during this campaign.
“If we look specifically at Urozhaine, it is the left flank of Vuhledar. And the occupiers are using standard tactics. When they can't break through the front, they start attacking the flanks, entering from them, taking them in their pincers, and thus capturing the settlements. There are many examples of this: Bakhmut, Avdiivka. They did not take them head-on, they took them from the flanks. And Urozhaine is one of the flanks. It's hard to say whether they will go to Vuhledar. So far, there are no further developments there, but there is definitely nothing good about it,” military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Photo: Russian troops managed to capture Urozhaine and Staromaiorske (deepstatemap.live)
The NYT says that the loss comes as a blow to Ukraine amid recent Russian successes, especially because the villages were captured at the cost of significant losses during last year's counteroffensive. However, the Ukrainian military continues to resist in neighboring areas of the front. Soldiers who visited the area told journalists that there were no civilians in these villages, and the houses were destroyed to the extent that there was nothing left to defend. The soldiers explain that Urozhaine consists of only two streets, and the Russian invaders managed to occupy half of the village in June this year. The soldiers describe that for a month and a half, it was “like a fight between two packs of dogs.” One of the soldiers says that “there came a moment when it made no sense to keep people there.”
On July 18, Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesman for the Khortytsia unit, officially confirmed the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Urozhaine. According to him, this decision was made to save the lives of the defenders. In a commentary to RBC-Ukraine, he explained that the tactical situation in the area of the village made it impossible to hold positions there.
“The enemy suffers considerable losses every day to achieve success and some kind of victory in the settlements and villages destroyed by them. They left several hundred killed, while the result is a destroyed settlement and a pile of corpses of Russian soldiers around it, who will not return home to their families,” said Voloshyn.
Another village that became a symbol of the summer counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Robotyne, which was liberated from the occupation in late August 2023. It is currently marked as a gray zone on the DeepState map. However, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are inclined to believe that this settlement is likely to be completely captured by the Russians again.
Photo: Analysts believe that the Russians have probably captured Robotyne completely (deepstatemap.live)
Reasons that forced Ukrainian soldiers to retreat and how difficult it will be to regain the lost
There is no doubt that the Russians are implementing their plan to regain what they have lost. Another question is how difficult it will be to regain the lands where the occupier has set foot for the second time. Expert Pavlo Narozhnyy explains that there are several reasons for this. But the first and biggest factor is the lack of people.
“Because there was a delay in the adoption of the law on mobilization. It came into force on May 18, when the Russian summer campaign had already begun. They began to attack, and we began to mobilize people at that moment,” the source said.
According to him, the second problem is enemy aircraft. The enemy is using a large number of guided aerial bombs, there is constant shelling along the contact line, attacks on positions and equipment, and, as Narozhnyi notes, “we have nothing to respond to all this yet.” In particular, due to the lack of F-16s and Patriot air defense systems in sufficient numbers.
“And the third thing is that weapons from the allies are coming to us relatively slowly. It is highly likely that those understaffed brigades, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously mentioned, lack armored vehicles, which are needed to deter the enemy's offensive, to destroy the occupiers' personnel and equipment. This also includes artillery and ammunition,” says Narozhnyy.
The expert emphasizes that it is difficult to answer the question of what exactly made Ukrainian soldiers retreat to other positions from the above-mentioned villages. It is necessary to assess each specific section of the front and what is happening there. But in general, the source admits, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to advance.
“When we are on the defensive, our losses are many times less, about 5-6 times at least, or even more. Because the enemy throws a huge number of people at us. And to attack, to win back, especially when we are talking about some large sections of the front, we have two options. Either storm each village, find a weak defense somewhere and then advance and recapture this or that section of the front. Or we can talk about a broad offensive that took place in 2023 with armored vehicles when special demining vehicles and tens of thousands of soldiers from our side were used,” Narozhnyy explains.
Russia will continue its tactical advance: Is it capable of a major advance?
British intelligence analyzed that Russian ground forces were “steadily advancing in the Donetsk region,” continuing their ongoing attacks in the central part of the region. The intelligence believes that Putin's army is likely to continue its tactical advance in the coming weeks.
But the overall operational capability of Russia remains limited due to a number of factors, including high casualty rates, limited training, and a shortage of officers, the British add.
Narozhnyt explains that it is about a small movement of the Russian military forward. The aggressor does not have the resources for a large advance, as it requires hundreds of thousands of trained people who are located on one section of the front, for example, 20-30 km wide. But even if such a group were to form, Ukraine would strike it with ATACMS missiles, the source said.
“For example, a few days ago, according to reports from Russian media, they were hit while forming up on July 27. According to their information, there were about 20 dead (and more than 70 wounded - ed.). Even when a hundred Russian infantrymen gather in one place, it is already a target for a missile strike. So if the enemy gathers tens of thousands of people in one place, they will definitely be struck there. Therefore, the advance that the occupiers may have is tens, maybe hundreds of meters a week,” Narozhnyy suggests.
The expert does not currently expect the Ukrainian Defense Forces to launch a large-scale offensive on any section of the front.
“By the end of the summer campaign, which is around the end of September or October, the dynamics at the front will not change. We are likely to be in a defense. We will lose territory somewhere, and regain it someplace, but I do not expect any major movement that will lead to the frontline collapsing and us going on the offensive,” the source summarized.
The obvious goal of the Russian army for this summer's offensive is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, so the enemy continues to put pressure. RBC-Ukraine already wrote when the enemy might run out of breath or even take a break.
Read also about the conditions under which the Ukrainian Defense Forces will have a chance to break through the front and when it might happen.
Sources: reports by ISW analysts and British intelligence, DeepState maps, a statement by a spokesman for the Khortytsia separate military unit Nazar Voloshyn, The New York Times, and exclusive comments by military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi.
