Five steps and time: Expert on what Ukraine needs for breakthrough at front
Illustrative photo (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Russia's apparent plans for this summer campaign remain focused on reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, so the enemy continues to apply pressure there. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have prospects of halting the occupiers in this offensive. Moreover, if certain tasks are accomplished, Ukrainian soldiers may even have a chance to break through the front lines.
Below, RBC-Ukraine explores the steps Ukraine needs to take for a breakthrough and whether the Russian summer offensive might wane.
Content
- Frontline situation
- What Ukraine needs for breakthrough
- Can Russian offensive wane?
Frontline situation
Without delving into specifics, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently described the current state of affairs on the battlefield and the military’s supply situation in one of his interviews. In response to a Bloomberg journalist’s question, he denied that the front situation is a stalemate, calling it problematic. The president immediately explained that the complications were due to delays in weapon deliveries from Western partners. However, he believes the problem can be solved "if there is the will and the tools."
"We have the will, but the tools haven’t arrived. That is, we have brigades without weapons, we have reserves, and we have 14 incomplete brigades that lack the appropriate weapons already voted on and discussed. The packages should be coming, but unfortunately, they are coming slowly," Zelenskyy said.
He also added that Ukraine could launch a new counteroffensive once it has enough weapons.
The UAF General Staff, for their part, reports that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are continuously engaging in combat aimed at thwarting the aggressor's offensive plans by destroying its personnel and equipment. The enemy is advancing, while Ukrainian soldiers remain in defense, exhausting the opponent's potential, with the most intense attacks occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. This area typically sees the highest number of Russian assault actions, which come at a high cost for their attempts to advance.
Despite all these efforts by the Russian army to implement its aggressive plans, the UAF has chances for a breakthrough. However, several important tasks lie ahead for the Ukrainian military: completing the new brigades and accumulating the necessary resources in terms of weaponry, which partners can help provide.
What Ukraine needs for breakthrough
Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, outlined steps that could help Ukraine achieve its goal and make a breakthrough in his comments to RBC-Ukraine:
1. Completion of new brigades and their armament
"President Zelenskyy mentioned that we currently lack weapons for 14 brigades. This needs to be done to ensure rotation and preparation of reserves, which should seize opportunities when the enemy makes mistakes on the front, which it will and already does. We need to be able to capitalize on these mistakes. Therefore, the first thing to do is to arm the military and wait for help from partners," Musiienko explained.
2. Analysis
The expert believes the second step is to analyze the enemy's actions and understand when our active defense can evolve into certain counteroffensive actions at the tactical level.
3. Accumulation of necessary resources
"We must accumulate the necessary resources to talk about a larger-scale offensive. This includes reservists and more weapons from our Western partners."
4. Adapting technological and innovative components on the battlefield
In this regard, Musiienko says that the Ukrainian army is currently addressing the issue of increasing drone and EW systems production. However, he emphasizes the need to understand how to use robotic platforms to replace infantrymen in certain cases.
5. Powerful organizational and management structure of the military
According to the expert, this structure is essential for making appropriate decisions at the right moment.
"All this is needed. Plus, we need time to achieve this. At this stage, we can talk about local counteroffensive actions that allow us to improve our tactical position. But when we talk about larger-scale offensive actions, this requires preparation, time, and resources. And at the right moment, determining the direction of the strike, delivering it, and not being afraid," Musiienko said.
Can Russian offensive wane?
Regarding the Russian summer offensive, the expert believes it will gradually decrease.
"We now see that although the enemy tries to expand the areas of offensive actions, it cannot exert equal pressure everywhere and achieve results, as our forces successfully defend in some places and carry out local counterattacks, pushing the enemy from their positions and then occupying them. Therefore, I believe we have the prospects to stop Russia in its offensive until the end of summer," Musiienko concluded.
RBC-Ukraine recently explored whether the enemy might launch a new offensive and expand the front.
We also explained why the occupation forces have become more active in the Toretsk direction in the Donetsk region.
Sources: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's interview with Bloomberg, data from the UAF General Staff, and an exclusive comment from Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies.
