End of war in Putin's logic means destruction of Ukrainian statehood - ISW

Analysts note that during a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on July 5, Putin stated that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine should not lead to a temporary ceasefire, as this would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm. Instead, Russia allegedly advocates for a complete and final end to the conflict.

However, the ISW believes that Putin currently seeks nothing less than the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, as indicated by his remarks and demands.

Experts reminded that Putin previously demanded the full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, over which Russia does not have complete control, as a precondition for ending the war. Additionally, he demanded recognition of Russian occupation.

Analysts note that Putin will not stop at this, as the purported borders of the so-called Novorossiya are disputed among Russian ultranationalists, and the Russian President and the Kremlin have regularly indicated their aim for territorial conquest beyond the administrative borders of the four regions.

The ISW also added that Putin would use Ukraine's capitulation to achieve another goal – overthrowing the democratically elected government of Ukraine and replacing it with a pro-Russian government and political system of his choosing.

It should be noted that a conflict arose between Hungary and Germany over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Specifically, Hungary canceled the visit of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Budapest after Scholz criticized Orbán.

Earlier, it was reported that Bulgaria intends to propose initiating peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the NATO summit in Washington.