End of expensive gas stations? Trump’s talks with Iran crash oil prices
Oil refining (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Global oil prices are showing their first weekly decline of 2026, reports Bloomberg.
A wave of pessimism has swept the global energy market, marking the strongest downturn since the beginning of the year. Crude prices are plunging rapidly, triggering a chain reaction on the exchanges. While oil giants calculate their losses, ordinary drivers are holding their breath, wondering: Does this signal the end of the era of expensive fuel?
Trump’s nuclear de-escalation: Fear of war disappears, and so does the price
The main trigger for the collapse was an unexpected shift in White House rhetoric. Donald Trump announced that he is ready to extend negotiations with Iran on the nuclear agreement by up to one month.
Why this hit the market: Previously, oil prices included a risk premium - investors feared military strikes on OPEC infrastructure. Now, as diplomacy has replaced the threat of missiles, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices have stabilized below $63, losing over 3% in just one day.
Record surplus: The world is drowning in oil
While politicians negotiate, the International Energy Agency (IEA) added fuel to the fire with its monthly report. Analysts predict that in 2026, the world will face a colossal surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day.
The IEA report states that they are witnessing the fastest growth in global inventories since the pandemic and that the market simply does not need as much oil as is currently being produced.
Domino effect: What will happen to gas station prices
A drop in crude oil prices is always a leading indicator for the retail market. Although gas stations usually respond with a 1–2 week delay, analysts predict the following:
- Lower production costs: If Brent oil holds below $65 per barrel, gas station networks will be forced to lower pump prices to remain competitive.
- Stock market panic: Asian and US markets have already begun selling shares of energy companies, which could accelerate the overall decline in commodity prices.
Currently, the world is witnessing a unique moment where diplomacy and oversupply are working in the consumer’s favor. If Trump’s negotiations with Iran do not collapse at the last moment, the current plunge in oil prices could mark the start of a prolonged period of cheap fuel.
The US recently outlined the conditions for lifting sanctions on Russia’s oil sector.
Interestingly, despite the significant oil discounts, Russia’s budget revenues from oil sales have dropped to a five-year low.
