Donetsk winter offensive: Pokrovsk became center of threat
Photo: The greatest threat currently looms over Pokrovsk (Getty Images)
The epicenter of fighting this winter will remain the Donetsk region, which the Russians, according to the latest "deadline," aim to fully capture by the end of February. Currently, the greatest threat hangs over Pokrovsk, where urban combat is already underway, according to RBC-Ukraine article, "Peace or blackout? Ukraine braces for toughest winter as Trump considers his next move".
Situation in Pokrovsk is worsening
As early as September, military sources assessed the situation in Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, as more difficult than in Pokrovsk. However, evaluations have since changed. While Ukrainian forces managed to stabilize the front near Kupiansk, the situation around Pokrovsk has noticeably worsened over recent weeks.
The area near Zvirove, southwest of the city, is particularly vulnerable. It was from there that, during the summer, the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation began advancing toward the boundaries of Pokrovsk. Subsequently, the occupiers managed to infiltrate the industrial zone and approach the road leading to Pavlohrad.
According to sources, up to a thousand Russian soldiers may be in the city. The railway running through Pokrovsk effectively divides it in half. On OSINT maps, the southern part of the city is already marked as a gray zone or under Russian control.
Despite this, there is currently no encirclement or "cauldron." The occupiers conduct raids in the central, western, and northern parts of the city, engaging in contact combat.
Myrnohrad in a "pocket," Ukrainian forces hold defense
An additional threat comes from simultaneous pressure on Myrnohrad, a satellite city of Pokrovsk. Both settlements are effectively in a pocket, where logistics are complicated due to constant FPV drone attacks on supply routes.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions, supported by units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, which arrived to reinforce the defense.
"It's extremely hard to predict how this will play out. We haven't yet reached the point of no return, but we're close. The fate of Pokrovsk will be decided in the coming weeks. If we lose Pokrovsk, we'll likely have to give up Myrnohrad almost without a fight, and from there the problem will spread across the northern Donetsk region," one source told RBC-Ukraine.
Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka could be next under threat
According to sources, if Russian forces succeed near Pokrovsk, they may shift the main pressure toward the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka agglomeration, intensifying attacks on Lyman, Siversk, and Kostiantynivka. At the same time, new breakthrough attempts are expected near Kupiansk.
Analysts estimate that Donetsk will remain Russia’s main winter offensive direction, aiming to achieve a tangible result by spring 2025.
According to the morning briefing of the General Staff, Ukrainian forces stopped 68 enemy assaults in one day along the Pokrovsk direction, including in the settlements of Nikanorivka, Mayak, Myrnohrad, Chervonyi Lyman, Rodynske, Razine, Mykolaivka, Novoekonomichne, Pokrovsk, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Novomykolaivka, Horikhove, Dachne, and Filiya.
According to ISW reports, Russian forces have redeployed their main strength toward Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, aiming to break through Ukrainian defenses.
It was also reported that the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense deployed a landing force to carry out stabilization measures in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region.
