Ukrainian troops left Sudzha? Situation in Kursk region and why Ukraine losing ground

The situation in the Kursk region is dynamic and changing literally every few hours. Over the past week, Russian forces have regained control of about 200 square kilometers of territory. While Vladimir Putin, dressed in camouflage, arrived to oversee the Kursk counteroffensive, and Russia’s Defense Ministry showcases footage of a devastated Sudzha after its "liberation," Ukrainian troops are working to secure new defensive lines.

Operation Truba (Pipe)

Ukrainian forces entered the Kursk region in August 2024. This operation came as a complete surprise to everyone, calling into question the "inviolability" of Russia’s borders — a narrative heavily promoted by Kremlin propaganda. The Armed Forces of Ukraine quickly secured positions in the region and even began bringing journalists there.

One of the most frequently visited locations was the town of Sudzha. Despite ongoing fighting and the fact that Ukrainian troops had essentially taken control, the town’s appearance remained largely unchanged. Residents who stayed behind repeatedly thanked Ukrainian soldiers in interviews for providing them with food and water. Many criticized Russian authorities and the military, accusing them of indifference toward the people of Kursk.

Ukrainian soldier is talking to Sudzha residents (hoto: RBC-Ukraine)

In reality, that’s exactly how it looked. Even though the Ukrainian Armed Forces secured positions in several Russian settlements, the Russian leadership provided only superficial comments on the situation and eventually went silent. It seemed as though they had decided to sacrifice the Kursk region rather than allocate reserves, redeploy military groups from other directions, or divert resources from occupying Ukrainian territories.

In early March, Russian so-called war correspondents first mentioned Operation Potok (Flow), later renamed Truba (Pipe). According to the Russian command’s plans, troops were supposed to advance 12 to 15 km through the unused Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline. Reports suggest that Russian soldiers spent a week crawling through the pipeline under toxic gas fumes, with a critical shortage of oxygen tanks and supplies.

Ukraine’s military later commented on the operation, stating that Russian forces failed to catch them off guard or secure positions in their rear. Ukrainian troops had received intelligence about Russia’s "underground infantry" and ambushed them at the pipeline’s exit. However, despite this failed attempt, the situation in the Kursk region deteriorated rapidly in early March. Russia deployed reserves and, according to various reports, relocated some of its forces from eastern Ukraine.

Battles in the Kursk region: Reconstruction of events

During its latest counteroffensive attempt in the Kursk region, the enemy focused on narrowing the width of Ukraine’s bridgehead while simultaneously complicating our logistics. In the end, this strategy proved effective.

The situation in the Kursk region began to deteriorate about a month ago when Russian forces captured the area from Dariino to Sverdlikovo, near the Ukrainian-Russian border. One of the key supply routes for Ukraine’s bridgehead in the Kursk region passed through Sverdlikovo. Losing control over this route put the entire northern section of the bridgehead, including areas north of Sudzha, at risk.

Additionally, Russian forces reaching the border between the Kursk and Sumy regions enabled them to establish fire control over another crucial supply route — Sudzha-Yunakivka — further straining Ukrainian logistics.

After taking Sverdlikovo, Russian troops advanced toward Novenke, already within the Sumy region. From there, they attempted to push toward Basivka and then toward the Yunakivka-Sudzha checkpoint to cut off Ukrainian forces from behind, forcing them to withdraw entirely from the Kursk region. However, their advance stalled beyond Novenke.

Last week, the situation intensified. Russian forces managed to break through to the border on the right flank of Ukraine’s bridgehead near Kurylivka, south of Sudzha. This was followed by the previously mentioned Potok operation. At the same time, enemy troops continued pressing along the perimeter of the bridgehead, including from the direction of Mirny and Makhnovka toward Sudzha.

The overall situation is further complicated by the forested terrain, where enemy soldiers dig in, even among tree roots, and the widespread use of fiber-optic-controlled drones, which electronic warfare systems cannot neutralize.

"As a result, due to the near impossibility of maintaining logistics and in order to preserve personnel, the decision was made to reduce the depth of our incursion and conduct a controlled withdrawal of troops," an informed source told RBC-Ukraine.

Sudzha in August (Photo: Getty Images)

Ukrainian officials have been commenting on the events in the Kursk region very cautiously. On March 12, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the situation. He refrained from providing details, only stating that the situation was indeed difficult and that Ukraine's priority was preserving the lives of its soldiers. In the evening, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that intense fighting was ongoing in the suburbs and districts of Sudzha.

"We will hold the defense in the Kursk region for as long as it remains feasible and necessary," he added.

Meanwhile, Russian official sources, which remained silent in the summer during the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation, are now actively reporting on the situation in the Kursk region. Russia’s Ministry of Defense has already published a video of the "liberated" Sudzha—showing a shattered city with charred building facades. However, this is standard behavior for Russian forces, noted Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence.

"Look at the cities they have 'liberated' in the east and south. They disregard everything — both military and civilian casualties. They destroy everything. They have realized that Ukrainians cannot simply be taken (defeated - ed.) — neither the civilian population nor the military — so their only option is to erase the city from the face of the earth along with everyone in it," Kostenko told RBC-Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin also reportedly arrived in the Kursk region, donning a camouflage uniform for only the second time since the full-scale war began (the first time was in September 2022 during the Vostok (East)-2022 military exercises). His presence was clearly an attempt to counter accusations that the Kremlin had been indifferent to the region since August. Additionally, this "visit" served as a signal that developments in the Kursk region were allegedly unfolding in Russia's favor.

According to sources cited by the new agency, no decision has been made regarding a complete withdrawal from the Kursk region — only a reduction of the bridgehead. Currently, its area stands at approximately 150 square kilometers. Based on information available to RBC-Ukraine, the number of Ukrainian troops stationed in the Kursk region ranged from 2,000 to 5,000. In recent days, some of these units have been withdrawn back into Ukrainian territory.

"It is clear that sooner or later, we will have to leave completely. But for now, the plan is to hold on there for as long as possible," one of the sources said.

MP Kostenko echoed this sentiment. According to him, Ukrainian forces have lost some settlements and are now trying to maintain their defense.

"I believe the main objective is not to retreat to our territory but to remain in defensive positions on Russian territory to continue striking and to maintain a buffer zone within Russia. How things will unfold depends on the decisions of the command, available resources, and how our troops fight," Kostenko said.

Regarding a full withdrawal from the Kursk region, experts note that it cannot be considered a catastrophe. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve Major Oleksii Hetman, the operation was initially conceived as a raid by Ukrainian troops into Russian territory.

"This is a military-political operation; it has fulfilled and continues to fulfill its assigned mission. However, if the threat to our forces increases significantly, I believe an order to withdraw will be given. Moreover, there is information that some brigades have already pulled out. Therefore, it would be wrong to consider a withdrawal from the Kursk region as some kind of defeat," Hetman told RBC-Ukraine.

Threat to Sumy region

As they advance on Kursk, the Russian forces, as usual, actively spread various disinformation in the information space to demoralize Ukrainian troops. One of the "legends" that has been circulating in the media for a week is the alleged advance of Russian forces to the borders of the Sumy region. If propaganda is to be believed, the Russian troops have "captured" the Sumy region dozens of times in recent days.

In reality, however, the enemy continues to amass forces near the border, attempting to cross it and establish a foothold in the direction of Novenke. The Russian forces’ likely goal is to encircle Ukrainian troops and completely cut off logistics. However, they have been unable to gain a foothold, so they rely on small assault groups. These consist of about five servicemen attempting to cross the Ukrainian border, according to State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko.

Ukrainian troops (photo: Getty Images)

"There is no actual border breakthrough at the moment, despite how it might be interpreted in Russia. The fact that individual servicemen crossed the border, attempted to gain a foothold on our territory, and then died is not a border breakthrough. In reality, the entire state border line with Russia can be considered a front line. The enemy can attempt to break through anywhere and use various groups, including sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRG)," Demchenko told RBC-Ukraine.

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After a series of Ukrainian counterattacks and the exhaustion of occupying forces, the aggressor’s advance in the East has noticeably slowed. They have still failed to enter Pokrovsk or Kupiansk. If Putin wants to present some kind of "victory" to his people on May 9, none of these Ukrainian cities seem likely to serve that purpose. It can be assumed that Moscow has decided to frame the "liberation" of the Kursk region as a victory they can showcase to Russians on Victory Day.

This theory is supported by Putin’s alleged visit to a command post in the Kursk region. Previously, he had avoided publicly associating himself with the operation in this area, and official propaganda paid minimal attention to the situation in Kursk.

However, there may be another explanation for Russia’s actions. Ukrainian officials have previously stated that they were considering negotiating the exchange of controlled territory in the Kursk region for occupied Ukrainian lands. The Russian offensive there and now could be aimed precisely at preventing such plans.

"I think this is the key factor. There were reports that even Trump criticized them, saying, ‘Why don’t you want to negotiate now when Ukrainian troops are occupying part of your territory?’ In 2024, this was our strategic victory, no matter what. The Russians advanced slightly, but it wasn’t strategic, while we, with small forces, achieved a strategic and geopolitical victory. So, of course, they keep bringing it up," says Kostenko.

Russia has intensified its actions in the Kursk region against the backdrop of a diplomatic process actively promoted by the United States. It is entirely possible that in an attempt to weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position, Putin has ordered his military command to reclaim the Kursk region as quickly as possible.