Democrats monitor while Trump celebrates: Will Biden's gaffes affect his participation in elections

Contents

• Biden's gaffes: 'Putin' instead of 'Zelenskyy' and 'Trump' instead of 'Harris'
• How Democrats react and whether the gaffes hurt Biden's rating
• Will Biden withdraw from the elections and is there an alternative candidate

Biden's gaffes: 'Putin' instead of 'Zelenskyy' and 'Trump' instead of 'Harris'

Gaffes are nothing new in Joe Biden's political career, which began with overcoming childhood stuttering. However, following his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump, they are receiving increasing attention. At the summit's conclusion, all eyes were on every word Biden uttered. Biden had to avoid making mistakes, but he couldn't.

In his closing speech, he barely stuttered, spoke about supporting Ukraine, and promised security guarantees after the war ended. However, at the end, while introducing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he said, "Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin."

Some European leaders began to applaud, while others were surprised, unsure how to react. The President corrected himself quickly.

"President Putin, you're going to beat President Putin, President Zelenskyy. I am so focused on beating Putin," he joked.

French President Emmanuel Macron stated that everyone makes gaffes and they are insignificant. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer refrained from commenting on whether Biden should withdraw from the presidential race, emphasizing instead the achievements of the NATO summit under his leadership.

Later, Biden held a press conference, his first unscripted appearance since the debates. He spoke for about an hour, appearing convincingly when discussing foreign policy but still made mistakes.

Responding to the first question about Vice President Kamala Harris's readiness to replace him if needed as a candidate in future elections, Biden confused her with Trump: "Look, I wouldn't have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president if she was not qualified to be president."

Of course, Trump immediately seized on another slip-up. "Great job, Joe!" he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Later, there were smaller mistakes. Biden struggled to find the words "chiefs of staff," mistakenly referring to the group of top military commanders as "commander-in-chief" (a role held by the president). He also claimed to have created 2,000 jobs last week, likely referring to a report of over 200,000 jobs created in June. Additionally, he may have confused the name of a labor union.

How Democrats react and whether the gaffes hurt Biden's rating

Biden's remarks cannot be viewed in isolation. Right now, he is under pressure. In recent days, high-profile officials have continued the wave of post-debate criticism with calls for him to withdraw from the race. So did Hollywood actor George Clooney, who headed the biggest fundraiser.

According to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, a majority of voters - 67% - support changing the Democratic Party's candidate.

Recent speeches are predictably ridiculed by Republicans. However, many Democrats are also dissatisfied. On Wednesday, Vermont Senator Peter Welch became the first Democrat in the Senate to publicly call on Biden to drop out of the race. Yesterday, similar statements were made by Connecticut Congressman Jim Himes, a senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.

"We must put forth the strongest candidate possible to confront the threat posed by Trump's promised MAGA authoritarianism. I no longer believe that is Joe Biden," he wrote in his X account.

As of today, the total number of Democrats in Congress urging Biden to "put country above party" has reached 17. However, supporters still constitute a majority

“The media is carefully monitoring the president’s every word for every hint of aging, and every gaffe, no matter how benign, serves to further entrench an already entrenched narrative. That’s the problem,” said New York House member Ritchie Torres.

Experts polled by RBC-Ukraine agree: Biden's gaffes affect perception within the Democratic Party more than they do among voters.

"It's naive to think that Americans closely followed the NATO summit, even if it was held in Washington," explained Vladyslav Faraponov, head of the Institute of American Studies and analyst at Internews-Ukraine.

His subpar performance in debates with Trump made a much bigger impression on voters. However, when it comes to the Democratic establishment, they certainly paid attention to Biden's words.

"He is under serious pressure due to calls to withdraw from the presidential race. He feels it himself. Regarding yesterday's situation, I think it will prompt Democrats to reconsider the idea of a possible Biden replacement. Earlier, such discussions declined," he noted.

While Democrats used to be more concerned about the votes of independent voters, now they are losing faith in Biden themselves due to his constant gaffes, said Oleksandr Kraiev, an expert at the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism. It doesn't make much difference who he confused yesterday. The problem is that this happens often, systematically, and now at the international level.

"Many American journalists have said that the press conference at NATO is perhaps the most important performance of his political career. In terms of whether Biden will continue it or have to end it. Now there are more and more hints that it will probably have to end," Kraiev added.

Will Biden withdraw from the elections and is there an alternative candidate

Last week, Biden was weighing the pros and cons. The American media discussed more than a dozen candidates for his replacement.

The main focus was on Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Harris has high recognition and can attract some "colored" voters. 50% of women voters and 43% of independent voters are ready to support her. The other two are significantly inferior to Trump.

Read more about this in the material "Five days to decide. Will Biden withdraw from elections and who could replace him"

It is worth noting that if Biden decides to withdraw from the race, it will set a precedent. Although not the first in history. For example, in the 1952 election, Harry Truman withdrew his candidacy after several primaries. However, this happened because of a critical drop in ratings amid the Korean War. Biden's case would be unique, as he is being discussed for withdrawing from the elections under party pressure.

According to Faraponov, there are currently no scenarios for replacing Biden without Biden's will.

"If this happens, he will have to say goodbye to his current presidential term. There are very few scenarios where he remains President but does not run for the 2024 elections. Especially at this stage, when all the primaries have passed, and the only thing left is the formal convention (the Democratic convention that will nominate the presidential and vice presidential candidates - ed.).

If this option is realized, Kamala Harris will automatically become President, and the main issue of the convention will be the choice of a vice presidential candidate. But this is all just theoretical, Biden is not planning to leave, and the Democrats will not dare to ignore the results of the primaries.

"Hypothetically, Harris has the best chances. The others have deeply theoretical ones. It is hard to imagine that someone will come out and say that they are ready to replace Biden. Sooner or later, he will cease to be president. But from the point of view of political gain, popular candidates and former presidents always act as serious campaigners in future campaigns," the analyst emphasizes.

Oleksandr Kraiev believes that the next wave of criticism from the Democrats does increase the likelihood of a dropout.

"In fact, Biden may leave the race. The question is that we don't hear stories about his team's meetings with Newsom, Buttigieg, or anyone who could be an adequate contender. In my personal opinion, Harris will not beat Trump, despite a 3% advantage in the polls. This is not a margin for a young and explosive candidate. She should be leading by at least 10% for the replacement to be valid and calm," he told RBC-Ukraine.

Biden seems to have a different view. In an interview with ABC News, he said he had no problems with age or mental clarity, denied dropping out of the race under Democratic pressure, and said that only "Lord Almighty" could force him to do so. Yesterday he emphasized that he has enough strength for a new four-year term. "I beat him (Trump - ed.) once and I will beat him again," he said.

Even if Biden ultimately withdraws, it is not certain that Trump will return to the White House. For one simple reason - 65 to 70% of voters in both parties say they don't like both.

"If the Democrats replace the candidate, they will show that they have heard them. If the people need young leadership, they will provide it, unlike the Republicans who are sticking with Trump and trying to play the cult of personality. Perhaps this bet will play out better. Yes, it is risky, but it can bring very big benefits," he added.

Sources: materials by Reuters, Politico, The Guardian, BBC, comments by Ukrainian analysts Oleksandr Kraiev and Vladyslav Faraponov.