China pledges not to use nuclear weapons first, but is expanding its arsenal
Illustrative photo (Getty Images)
China has begun ramping up diplomatic pressure on the US concerning nuclear issues, while simultaneously strengthening its own nuclear capabilities, according to the Financial Times.
Beijing, the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that has committed to a no-first-use nuclear policy, called on other members in Geneva to uphold this commitment and criticized Washington's measures to protect its allies.
China has formally proposed that the no-first-use policy become a key international consensus and priority. However, the US and its allies, along with analysts, view this as an attempt by Beijing to deflect Western criticism of its expanding nuclear arsenal.
China presented a draft treaty or declaration on no-first-use to the UN Security Council's committee in Geneva, which is preparing for the upcoming review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Additionally, China condemned the US security guarantees to its NATO and Asian allies as a serious violation of the NPT, demanding their repeal.
At the same time, China is expanding its stockpile of nuclear warheads and modernizing its delivery systems, leading some foreign officials to believe that the country could soon rival the US and Russia as a nuclear power.
The Pentagon forecasts that by 2030, China will have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads—double its current number and four times the amount estimated six years ago. Beijing is actively constructing missile silos and deploying submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons, enabling it to launch nuclear strikes on demand rather than only in response.
These developments have sparked debates among experts about whether China might be shifting away from its no-first-use policy and minimum deterrence strategy towards a more aggressive posture. Concerns are heightened by China's lack of transparency, as Beijing has refused to participate in arms control mechanisms.
Last month, China suspended talks with the US on nuclear arms control, marking the first such exchange in five years.
Non-strategic nuclear weapons
After a five-year hiatus, the US and China have resumed discussions on nuclear issues, while Washington is concurrently developing a new, more assertive nuclear strategy.
