China grows wary of deepening Putin-Kim Jong Un alliance

According to Forbes, the main problem for China is that North Korea, thanks to Russian support, is gradually becoming stronger and more confident in its capabilities.

"Chinese leader Xi Jinping is also concerned that growing ties between Putin and Kim Jong Un will reduce Xi’s leverage over Pyongyang," the article states.

At the same time, official and academic sources in China emphasize that Beijing is not interested in forming a close trilateral military alliance involving China, Russia, and North Korea.

Although cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang creates additional pressure on the US and its allies, such an alliance could limit China's own strategic options.

What North Korea receives from Russia

According to Forbes, since October 2024, North Korea has sent more than 16,000 troops to Russia and transferred over 15 million artillery shells. Pyongyang has also supplied Russia with KN-23 and KN-24 missiles.

Meanwhile, as Forbes notes, Russia is helping North Korea gain access to military technologies. This includes, in particular, air defense systems, drone technologies, and other developments.

North Korea may also receive access from Russia to autonomous drones equipped with artificial intelligence and jet engines.

"With Russian help, North Korea’s nuclear program and space assets are accelerating, emboldening Kim Jon Un," Forbes states.

According to the publication's estimates, Pyongyang could earn between $7.7 billion and $14.4 billion from selling arms to Russia and deploying its military on Russian territory.

Why this worries Beijing

China fears that the strengthening of North Korea could lead to new provocations and miscalculations by Pyongyang. This, in turn, could push the US, South Korea, and Japan into even closer security cooperation.

Furthermore, the enhancement of North Korea's military capabilities could prompt Seoul and Tokyo to consider developing their own nuclear weapons.

Relations between China and North Korea have historically been complex. Forbes notes that there has been competition, tension, and distrust between the countries. Beijing is primarily interested in the stability of North Korea, but not necessarily in it becoming significantly stronger.

Against this backdrop, Moscow and Pyongyang are drawing closer increasingly actively. Over the past 18 months, there have been 23 high-level visits involving ministers between Russia and North Korea, compared to only eight between China and North Korea.

Forbes believes that relations between Russia and North Korea are predominantly pragmatic and transactional. However, for China, their rapid deepening creates more challenges than opportunities.

"As Moscow deepens its military and strategic ties with Pyongyang, Beijing risks losing some of its leverage over North Korea while facing a more unpredictable neighbor on its doorstep," Forbes summarizes.

Last month, Russian leader Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow and Pyongyang are actively cooperating in all areas and coordinating efforts for regional security.

The war in Ukraine gives North Korea a new advantage - participation in hostilities has allowed Pyongyang to gain modern combat experience and test its own missile systems.