Brussels expects gradual return of Ukrainian refugees in 2025
Photo: EU refugees will gradually return to Ukraine (Getty Images)
The European Commission does not yet see signs of lasting peace in Ukraine. However, in the baseline scenario, the gradual return of refugees will begin already this year, according to the EC forecast (spring 2025).
According to the EC, the number of temporary protection recipients in the EU was about 4.3 million people in January 2025.
It is assumed that the number of active registrations for temporary protection in the EU will remain generally stable throughout 2025, and then decrease to 4.1 million by the end of 2025 and to 3.8 million by the end of 2026.
According to the EC, the growth of the labor force in the period from 2022 to 2024, largely due to the influx of refugees from Ukraine, will most likely cease in 2025 and 2026, as the natural decline in the population will resume in 2026.
No peace in sight yet
The economic consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine remain extremely uncertain and decisively depend on its development, the forecast states. The baseline scenario assumes that geopolitical tensions in the region and sanctions against Russia will persist throughout the entire forecast horizon (until the end of 2026).
The EC forecast stated that security concerns had intensified as the war in Ukraine continued without signs of resolution. It noted that despite efforts by the US, the EU, individual member states, as well as by Russia and Ukraine, a strong peace agreement that would provide sufficient guarantees to Ukraine and the EU remained unattainable.
Refugee forecasts
According to the NBU, during 2024 the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued and totaled about 0.5 million people over the year.
According to NBU expectations, another 200,000 people will leave Ukraine this year. The NBU expects the beginning of their return in 2026 (about 0.2 million people), which will accelerate in 2027 (about 0.5 million people).
