Blow to Putin’s military budget. Russian oil prices plunging — Bloomberg
Illustrative photo: Russian oil prices have plummeted (Getty Images)
Russian oil exports have sharply declined in the last weeks of 2025 and early January. Amid 14 consecutive price drops and reduced shipment volumes, the cost of deliveries has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, Bloomberg reports.
According to the media outlet, over the four weeks leading up to January 4, shipments averaged 3.43 million barrels per day, roughly 440,000 barrels less than in the period before December 21. The main decline came from deliveries through the Pacific port of Kozmino. Export volumes remain unstable and depend on weather conditions, sanctions restrictions, and shipping schedules.
Bloomberg reports that amid US sanctions imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russian oil has dropped in price more sharply than global benchmarks.
Urals crude fell below $35 per barrel in the Baltic and Black Seas, losing about 40% of its value since early October. Over the same period, Russia’s ESPO crude in the Pacific decreased by 25%. For comparison, North Sea Dated crude fell only 10%.
Exports are declining amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries, pipelines, ports, and tankers. Due to drone attacks in the Black Sea, vessels heading to Novorossiysk have started navigating along the Turkish coast.
Shipments of Russian oil have resumed to key ports in India, but logistics have become more complicated. Hidden ship-to-ship transfers have become more frequent, and tankers are waiting longer for port entry clearance, anchored offshore.
Some tankers have stopped appearing on tracking systems near the Riau Archipelago off Singapore. This area is traditionally used for the transshipment of sanctioned oil and is increasingly popular among Russian oil carriers seeking to conceal the cargo’s origin.
Since the beginning of November, around 40 ship-to-ship oil transfers have been recorded, occurring in the Riau area, at the entrances to the Suez Canal, and near the ports of Kozmino and Zarubino in the Russian Far East.
In the week up to January 4, 30 tankers loaded 21.46 million barrels of Russian oil. The previous week, 32 vessels loaded 23.59 million barrels, according to shipping monitoring data and port agent reports.
India cuts imports of Russian oil
India’s largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, earlier reported that it does not expect Russian oil deliveries in January and has not received any for the past three weeks.
This contradicts media reports of the alleged planned arrival of three Russian oil tankers at the Jamnagar refinery. Against this backdrop, India’s imports of Russian oil may fall to their lowest levels in recent years.
