Bloomberg assessed likelihood of civil unrest in 20 largest economies in world
Illustrative photo (Getty Images)
The US ranks third, following Türkiye and Russia, among the 20 largest economies likely to experience political upheavals next year. This is according to an analysis conducted by Bloomberg Economics.
According to the analysis, while the probability of open civil unrest in the US next year is low - at just 2.9% - it is the third highest among the 20 largest economies. This risk is more than twice as high as that for countries like Canada, Germany, and Australia, which are considered democratic peers of the US.
The analysis uses an approach developed by the US Government's Political Instability Task Force to assess the risk of violent internal conflict. It aims to identify trends that have raised concerns about unrest in the years following the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021.
The analysis indicates that the erosion of democratic institutions and the rise of factional grievances in the US have significantly increased the risk of internal armed conflict.
"Predictions for rare events like internal conflict come with a high degree of uncertainty attached. Still, we think the model is a useful way of putting an analytic framework around rising risks in the US - and the results are far from reassuring," wrote Bloomberg Economics analyst Nick Hallmark.
The likelihood of internal unrest in Russia is estimated by the agency's analysts at 4%.
On Sunday evening, Donald Trump's campaign team stated that the former president was safe after shots were fired near him.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has described the incident as resembling an attempted assassination of former President Trump.
