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Biden and Trump's chances of winning US presidential election 2024

Biden and Trump's chances of winning US presidential election 2024 Joe Biden and Donald Trump (photo: RBC-Ukraine collage)

With less than five months remaining until the UІ presidential election, the outcome remains highly uncertain. Biden and Trump are almost neck and neck, with a slight edge for the Republican candidate. Despite efforts from both sides and high-profile political events, such as Trump's recent criminal conviction, the balance remains relatively steady.

Read below about Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election and how they will be affected by the recent sentence to the former US president.


What polls say

Poll results, conducted almost daily in the US, are quite contradictory. Among 18 national surveys from various companies since late May, Trump leads in eight, Biden in five, and the rest show a tie. The numbers vary significantly, influenced by whether other candidates are included in the polls. Additionally, many surveys are conducted by organizations affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties, so average ratings are more reliable.

Overall, Trump’s support across the nation is 1.1% higher than Biden’s, a trend that has remained consistent for months. Trump’s average lead has fluctuated between 0.3% and 1.7%, within the margin of error.

However, the election outcome in the US is determined by individual states rather than nationwide results. Seven swing states will be crucial in 2024: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In these swing states, Trump’s position is more favorable than on a national level. He leads Biden in all seven, with margins ranging from 0.1% in Wisconsin and Michigan to 5.3% in Nevada. Trump's sustained lead in these states is a worrying sign for Biden’s campaign. If the election were held today, and the polls were entirely accurate, Trump would win decisively: 312 to 226 electoral votes.

Impact of Trump’s verdict on poll numbers

RBC-Ukraine has previously detailed how Biden might turn the campaign in his favor, focusing on issues like abortion rights and economic growth. There were high hopes that Trump’s legal troubles would damage his ratings.

Poll data indicates that Trump’s conviction had some impact but not as much as many Democrats hoped. Comparing surveys from the same polling companies before and after the verdict shows that Biden narrowed the gap by an average of 1%.

On the day of the verdict, May 31, Trump’s odds of winning, according to bookmakers, dropped from 52% to 48%, while Biden’s increased from 36% to 39%. However, the situation quickly stabilized, and Trump regained a strong lead in the betting odds. The "hush money" case did not significantly affect American voters, likely because the trial was not televised, missing the visual impact that could attract public attention.

The situation might change if Trump is sentenced to actual prison time (with the punishment to be announced on July 11). A substantial number of Republican voters might not want a jailed candidate leading the country. However, a prison term is unlikely; a milder punishment is more probable.

Polls show that Americans will likely vote for the lesser evil this election, with higher levels of antipathy than support for both Biden and Trump. For instance, 15% of Americans dissatisfied with Biden still plan to vote for him because Trump is even less acceptable. This dynamic means neither candidate benefits significantly from the other's problems.

Significant shifts might occur in the fall when the less politically engaged American public typically starts paying attention to the elections. Currently, according to a Pew Research survey, 58% of US voters are closely following election news.

Previously, RBC-Ukraine explained the rules of the US presidential election in detail and compiled the most notable promises made by Donald Trump during his campaign.

Sources: ABC News, CNN, RealClearPolling, 270towin, and AOL.