Belarus building launcher for Oreshnik missile: How true are Lukashenko's claims

What preceded This

Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, stated that Belarus is manufacturing launch systems for the Oreshnik missile. According to him, the production of several launchers for the Oreshnik is allegedly nearing completion.

"When I delved into this issue — well, actually, Vladimir Vladimirovich (Vladimir Putin, Russian president – ed.) got me involved — I realized that, besides the missile itself, everything else needs to be manufactured, and we are doing it in Belarus. Several launch systems intended for the Oreshnik are practically finished today. From our 'big brother' (Russia – ed.), we will need the missile," he said.

What Defense Express says

According to the news agency, a short video recently surfaced online showing tests in Minsk of a six-axle chassis, whose intended purpose has not been publicly disclosed. Although the timeframe of the video is not specified, it can be assumed that it may have captured tests of a chassis intended for the launch system of the Russian medium-range Oreshnik ballistic missile, also known as Kedr.

However, it is worth noting that the Belarusian Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MKZT) defense enterprise manufactures chassis for several types of missile systems used by the Russian Armed Forces.

These include the Iskander tactical missile system, the Bal coastal missile system (for Kh-35U missiles), the Bastion coastal missile system, the A-222 Bereg coastal artillery system, the radar post for the S-400 air defense system, and other systems.

Based on publicly available images, it can be concluded that the use of a special chassis from the Belarusian MZKT was also envisioned as part of the RS-26 Rubezh medium-range ballistic missile project, which Russia officially "suspended" in 2018 but ultimately served as the foundation for the Oreshnik missile.

However, the basis for comparison is limited by the fact that both Russian and Belarusian sources have only publicly shown the RS-26 Rubezh as a mobility prototype in at least two configurations, rather than a fully configured mobile launcher. Even within this publication, available images of the RS-26 Rubezh prototype can be seen, where the chassis appears in both an eight-axle and a six-axle variant.

Therefore, in this case, it is quite difficult to determine how significant the differences between the mobile launchers for the RS-26 Rubezh and the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile would be.

Compared to the RS-26 Rubezh prototype, the newly demonstrated chassis from the Belarusian MKZT differs at least in the number and arrangement of axles. Additional differences may include the power unit, chassis weight, mobility speed, and payload capacity of the mobile launcher.

In light of the above, two possible scenarios should be considered:

1. When Lukashenko stated that the local defense industry was working on a launcher for the Oreshnik missile, his claim was true, but the nuance is that the final product does not yet exist, and the chassis is still undergoing testing.

2. The Russians deliberately engaged in disinformation by leaking the chassis video, which in theory may have no connection to the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile at all. This could be an attempt to obscure the mass and dimensional parameters of the mobile launcher, as revealing them might provide insight into the missile’s own specifications.

Oreshnik

In November last year, the Russian Federation used an Oreshnik missile for the first time during its full-scale war, striking Dnipro. Following this, Putin acknowledged the testing of this weapon system.

Later, reports emerged about the possible deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus. However, the Center for Countering Disinformation dismissed these claims as an attempt at intimidation. The center's head, Andriy Kovalenko, also explained that statements about the alleged reduction in missile flight time are part of Russia's information warfare.