Beijing secures new trade path to Europe bypassing Russia
Photo: flag of China (Getty Images)
China and Kazakhstan are accelerating the development of the Trans-Caspian transport route bypassing Russia. If the plans are implemented, Moscow could lose billions in transit revenues from trade between Asia and Europe, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Beijing plans to significantly increase cargo flows to Europe in the coming years via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the "Middle Corridor." The route passes through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, allowing shipments to completely bypass Russian territory.
Although this route is more complex than the traditional Russian transit path due to a combination of rail transport, sea crossings, and customs procedures across multiple countries, China and Kazakhstan are actively investing in its development. The main reasons include sanctions risks, declining trust in Russia as a transit country, and efforts to reduce dependence on unstable maritime routes.
To develop the corridor, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) plans to invest about $10 billion by 2030 in upgrading rail, port, and terminal infrastructure.
By 2026, around 900 km of new railway lines are expected to be built. In particular, the Aiyagoz–Bakhty section will create a third rail crossing on the border with China. As a result, the route’s capacity could increase from 55 million to 100 million tons of cargo per year by 2030.
In addition, KTZ is investing more than $100 million in building six new cargo vessels for transportation across the Caspian Sea between the ports of Aktau, Kuryk, and Baku.
Amid the expansion of the transport corridor, KTZ is also preparing for an IPO in 2026, with a potential listing in Kazakhstan, London, and Hong Kong. The funds raised are expected to be used for further infrastructure development and rolling stock upgrades.
According to the TMTM association, transport volumes along the route increased from 2.76 million tons in 2023 to 4.48 million tons in 2024. In the first quarter of 2026, about 173 container trains have already passed through the corridor, and Kazakhstan expects this figure to reach 600 by the end of the year. In 2027, this figure could grow by another 67%.
Analysts estimate that once the route reaches full capacity, Russia could permanently lose its status as a key transit hub between Asia and Europe, resulting in multibillion-dollar losses.
In addition, Kazakhstan has completely refused the participation of Russian contractors in the construction of three combined heat and power plants in Kokshetau, Semey, and Ust-Kamenogorsk. The projects will be implemented by a Kazakh-Singaporean consortium, with commissioning scheduled for 2029.
Originally, the construction of the CHPs was discussed with Russian participation, but due to unresolved financing issues, Astana decided to proceed with the projects without Russian companies.
