Assad regime falls: Implications for Ukraine’s battlefield explored
Photo: Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is not expected to influence the war in Ukraine, but Russia has lost a significant zone of influence, according to Andriy Kovalenko, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC).
“Russia has lost a key zone of influence in the Middle East, including its logistical bases,” Kovalenko noted.
He believes that the failure of Russia in Syria stems from the destruction of the Wagner Group and its former leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
“Prigozhin spent years building Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East and Africa. Syria was the key to Africa due to Russian bases and naval access to the Mediterranean Sea,” said the NSDC official.
According to Kovalenko, Russia’s role in Africa will weaken further. He added that Russia is trying to shift the blame for losing Syria onto Iran.
Kovalenko also stated that the fall of Assad’s regime is unlikely to affect the war in Ukraine.
“Many speculate that Russia will now focus its forces on the war in Ukraine. However, they are already overheating their economy to wage war in 2025, and they will not be able to sustain the long term without an unpopular mobilization. Syria does not impact Russia’s capabilities in our war,” Kovalenko explained.
The fall of Assad’s regime
Today, December 8, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria for over 20 years, was officially toppled. Syrian rebels entered Damascus, seizing state media buildings and government institutions.
It is known that Assad fled Damascus. According to media reports, he allegedly left the Syrian capital on a Russian aircraft. Reuters speculates that Assad may have died in a plane crash, but there is no confirmation of this.
Meanwhile, Israel has deployed troops to the buffer zone on its border with Syria. The Israeli army also carried out strikes on airbases in southern Syria.
Learn more about what’s happening in Syria in the RBC-Ukraine report.
