All out: How Trump starts mass deportation of illegal immigrants and how Latin America reacts

Contents:

• How many illegal immigrants are being deported from the US
• Who and how receives deported individuals
• Will there be a collective response from Latin America

In the first days of his presidency, Donald Trump soured relations between the US and several Latin American countries. The main issue is immigration. During his election campaign, Trump had promised to initiate mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Most of these immigrants had arrived in the US from countries in the region, and now they are being deported back in the thousands.

How many illegal immigrants are being deported from the US

On the first day of his presidency, Trump declared a state of emergency at the US-Mexico border and deployed troops there. Mass arrests began across the country. At least during the initial stage of the large-scale operation, law enforcement officers are arresting illegal immigrants accused of crimes. However, according to numerous statements by Trump, in the long term, all illegal immigrants could be deported - millions of people.

Previously, officials were allowed to expedite deportations only for immigrants detained within 100 miles (160 kilometers) of the border. However, with Trump's arrival, several internal guidelines of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) were changed. Now, deportation is possible for individuals detained anywhere in the US who cannot prove they applied for asylum and have been in the US for less than two years.

According to ICE, between January 23 and 30, 5096 people were detained. The Washington Post reports that service employees were advised to plan for 1200 to 1500 arrests per day. Most detainees are immediately deported on military planes.

Who and how receives deported individuals

Some countries have started accepting their deported citizens and nationals from third countries without reservations. In El Salvador, populist President Nayib Bukele, ideologically aligned with Trump, is willing to cooperate with the US Guatemala and Honduras are accepting deportees for pragmatic reasons, hoping to maintain US financial aid.

There were also negotiations concerning the acceptance of illegal immigrants from Venezuela, which has been politically isolated in recent years. The country has tentatively agreed to accept its citizens, including members of the "Train of Aragua" cartel. Venezuela also freed six American hostages it had held, likely in exchange for easing sanctions.

However, some are opposed to accepting illegal immigrants. Colombia, the US's closest ally in the region, refused to accept flights on January 26. In response, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Colombia, enhanced customs and border checks on Colombian citizens and cargo, and sanctions against several Colombian politicians. Colombian President Gustavo Petro caved within hours and agreed to accept the migrants.

Despite the blow to his reputation, he took this step because Colombia is economically dependent on the US – nearly 30% of its exports go to the US, whereas trade with Colombia represents only a small fraction of the US.

Trump is proceeding more cautiously with Mexico, although it is from this country that the majority of illegal immigrants to the US originate. Like Colombia, Mexico refused to accept deported migrants on flights. However, the economies of the US and Mexico are tightly intertwined, with trade between the two countries reaching approximately $900 billion.

Both countries, along with Canada, are part of the USMCA free trade zone (named after the first letters of the countries' names).

Mexico is not opposed to deporting its citizens. "When it comes to repatriations, we will always welcome the arrival of Mexicans to our territory with open arms," stated the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

At the same time, Mexico refuses to accept migrants from third countries with which the US has no bilateral relations, such as Nicaragua and Cuba. There have already been instances where US planes carrying illegal migrants from these countries were denied landing in Mexico.

The most problematic issues regarding migrants in the US involve Mexico. Drug cartels are operating in the country that smuggle illegal immigrants into the US Trump has declared these cartels international terrorist organizations. This allows for quicker sanctions against them, but in the foreseeable future, it could lead to the physical destruction of the cartels by US forces or missile strikes on Mexican territory.

Furthermore, the US announced the revival of the "Remain in Mexico" program, which required asylum seekers from other countries to wait in Mexico while their cases were processed in the United States. Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, stated that such a move would require her country's consent, which has not been given.

This is compounded by Trump's desire to reduce the trade deficit with Mexico. On February 1, the US president imposed an additional 25% tariff on Mexican goods.

Will there be a collective response from Latin America

Most Latin American leaders side with Colombia. This is partly due to the poor image the US has in the region, stemming from numerous armed interventions in the past.

The Financial Times notes that there is a stifling atmosphere in Latin American embassies in Washington. A high-ranking diplomat from the region told the publication that it feels as though "We seem to have gone back to 1897 and the era of President [William] McKinley, who invaded Cuba and the Philippines."

Openly supporting the Colombian president are China and Russia's allies, such as Cuba and Venezuela, though other countries are more cautious. If Trump is willing to impose sanctions and tariffs even on the closest allies, then less aligned nations may face even harsher actions.

After the incident with Colombia, Honduras called an urgent summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) but later canceled the meeting. No major regional leader, except for the Colombian president, confirmed their attendance.

In the migrant issue, the initiative is still firmly on the side of the US Nothing stops Donald Trump from making energetic and swift decisions. Meanwhile, the countries of the region are in a weak position. Likely, each will attempt to negotiate with Trump individually. However, the migrant issue is not the only concern the US has in Latin America. Far more conflicts may arise when Trump addresses the significant Chinese influence in the region.

This article is based on materials from Forbes, The Washington Post, Financial Times, and statistical data from the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.