Air truce: ISW reveals how Russia may use ceasefire
Photo: ISW revealed how Russia can use the ceasefire (Getty Images)
The Kremlin remains uninterested in a real peace with Ukraine. A possible air truce could become an opportunity for Russia to stockpile drones and missiles for future large-scale strikes, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, Moscow is trying to control the pace and format of negotiations on a temporary ceasefire and long-term peace, especially after the start of the US efforts.
"Putin's efforts to posture himself as amenable to US peace proposals and meaningful negotiations while refusing to meet with Zelenskyy in the near term are attempts to obfuscate the reality," the statement says.
Experts emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to avoid a genuine peace process and instead aims to "extract bilateral concessions from the United States without meaningfully engaging in a peace process." At the same time, he is not interested in ending the war against Ukraine.
According to ISW, during a meeting with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on August 6, Putin likely proposed a moratorium on long-range strikes. Analysts believe this would allow Russia to stockpile strike capabilities and resume large-scale attacks once the truce ends.
ISW also noted that such a moratorium would limit Ukraine’s Defense Forces from carrying out long-range strikes on targets that support Russia’s defense-industrial base and military economy.
Air truce
Recently, Bloomberg reported that Russian authorities are considering an air ceasefire with Ukraine. Moscow may take this step to avoid secondary tariffs and sanctions from the US.
Unnamed sources told the outlet that the visit of US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia is seen as Moscow’s last chance to reach a deal with Donald Trump, even if the chances of success are low.
The Center for Countering Disinformation also believes that a ceasefire in the air is a trap meant to buy time for Russia to stockpile resources.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Ground Forces stated that the air truce Russia may offer would bring many problems to Ukraine, particularly because it would give the enemy more opportunities to increase the use of ground equipment at the front.
