After war in Ukraine, Russia may shift its focus to Finland and Europe – Finnish intelligence

According to the 2025 annual report of the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (Supo), published on Tuesday, the end of the war in Ukraine would "improve the ability of Russia to engage in hostile activity elsewhere in Europe." It will also "increase the threat to Finland."

Finnish intelligence also warns that many states, including Russia, have intensified their use of proxy servers for both intelligence gathering and broader influence campaigns. In particular, this applies to efforts to "undermine Western support for Ukraine."

"Sabotage operations in Europe linked to the Russian military intelligence service GRU are one example of this. By using intermediaries, Russia seeks to cover its tracks. Russian sabotage operations aim to influence public opinion and the sense of public safety, and to overwhelm the authorities in target countries. The main goal at the moment is to undermine western support for Ukraine," the report states.

According to Supo Director Juha Martelius, Finland must be prepared for increasing Russian influence as a country bordering Russia and a state in the Baltic Sea region.

Russia-Finland border

In 2023, Finland recorded a sharp increase in the number of migrants from Somalia and Iraq at its border with Russia. The Kremlin did not provide official explanations, but a subsequent journalistic investigation confirmed the involvement of Russian security forces in the process.

In response, Finland closed its border with Russia and continues to deport illegal migrants. These actions by Russia are partly explained by Finland’s support for Ukraine in its war against the aggressor.

It is known that until the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Helsinki froze bilateral relations with Russia. Finnish President, Alexander Stubb, also stated that Finns must prepare for the possibility that Russian aggression could reach Finland’s border.